council-book
PAPER · NO BROKER

Agents / Analysts

Macro analyst LLM

Describes the macro regime and its drivers from public macro data; context only.

Latest: not scheduled this run → the core held

PAPER Decision #4

Its last 5 meetings, newest first

  1. #4not run
  2. #3usable
  3. #2not run
  4. #1usable
  5. 25 Sep, 14:40 UTCparse fail

✓ a usable reply · ✗ the call failed · — it did not run

What it does

It runs on the first run of each UTC day. Code never acts on its regime or tilts; the advocates and the manager may cite it.

Kind
a language model
Model
deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud

Prompts in force: council-macro/v2 d6288b179b4d. Each run records the hash of the prompts it used; a prompt change is a versioned policy change.

Its numbers

Usable replies
2 of 3 calls
Failed calls
1
1 parse fail
Median time
2.9 s
per call
Meetings
5
4 paper · 1 live or rehearsal

Failed calls

History

Newest first. The latest is open; each other meeting opens on a click and links to its run or decision page.

#4 · 2 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC PAPER not run not scheduled this run

Open decision #4 →

Macro analyst — 0 calls

no model call recorded

Not scheduled this run: the macro analyst runs on the first run of each UTC day.

#3 · 2 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC PAPER ok neutral

Open decision #3 →

Macro analyst — 1 call

call macro --prompt council-macro/v2

sha d6288b179b4d · 5,423 tokens in · 762 out · 2.9 s

ok

1 call · 2.9 s · 5,423 tokens in / 762 out

Regime: neutral

  1. Front-end rates repriced hard: 2y +49 basis points and 10y +50 basis points over 20 days, with DFF +25 basis points, so policy is tightening into an equity uptrend.2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 49 basis points10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 50 basis pointsFed funds rate · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 25 basis points
  2. Curve barely steepened (10y-2y +6 basis points to +0.46%) while VIX sits at 16.4: no growth scare priced, but no easing either.10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change, 1 Oct: 6 basis points10y–2y yield curve, 1 Oct: 0.46%VIX, 1 Oct value not republished
  3. Dollar index +1.67% over 20 days lines up with EURUSD -2.4% vs 50-day average and GBPUSD below both averages despite its 'up' tag.broad US dollar index · 20-day change, 25 Sep: 1.666%Euro / US dollarvs 50-day average: −2.4%Pound / US dollarvs 50-day average: −1.65%
  4. Equity uptrends are intact but narrow: SEMIS +9.0% vs 50-day average and NDX +3.8%, while SPX is only +0.3% above its 50-day.Semiconductorsvs 50-day average: 9%Nasdaq-100vs 50-day average: 3.77%S&P 500vs 50-day average: 0.32%

macro card 1 risk down macro context

US 2y +49 basis points and DFF +25 basis points with a +1.67% dollar index keep both FX pairs capped; EURUSD already -2.4% vs its 50-day.

On Euro / US dollar, Pound / US dollar · for 20 days · would be wrong if: Dollar index falls more than 1% over 20 days or 2y yield drops 25 basis points.

2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 49 basis pointsFed funds rate · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 25 basis pointsbroad US dollar index · 20-day change, 25 Sep: 1.666%Euro / US dollarvs 50-day average: −2.4%

Cited by Bear, Bull (rebuttal).

#2 · 1 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC PAPER not run not scheduled this run

Open decision #2 →

Macro analyst — 0 calls

no model call recorded

Not scheduled this run: the macro analyst runs on the first run of each UTC day.

#1 · 1 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC PAPER ok neutral

Open decision #1 →

Macro analyst — 1 call

call macro --prompt council-macro/v2

sha d6288b179b4d · 5,420 tokens in · 769 out · 2.7 s

ok

1 call · 2.7 s · 5,420 tokens in / 769 out

Regime: neutral

  1. Front-end rates repriced hard: 2y +55 basis points and 10y +51 basis points over 20 days with DFF +25 basis points, a tightening impulse that has not yet dented equity uptrends.2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 55 basis points10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 51 basis pointsFed funds rate · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 25 basis points
  2. Curve essentially flat at +0.41% (T10Y2Y +1 basis points over 20d): the move is a level shift, not a steepening story.10y–2y yield curve, 30 Sep: 0.41%10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change, 30 Sep: 1 basis points
  3. Dollar index +1.67% over 20 days lines up with EURUSD and GBPUSD both below their 50d and 200d averages, capping the FX overlays.broad US dollar index · 20-day change, 25 Sep: 1.666%Euro / US dollartrend: downPound / US dollarvs 50-day average: −1.21%
  4. VIX 16.3 with equity vol ratios 0.83-1.00x and vol shocks 0.5-0.7x: realized risk is quiet even as rates rise, so no risk-off confirmation.VIX, 30 Sep value not republishedS&P 500volatility vs its 1-year norm: 0.826Nasdaq-100volatility shock: 0.582

macro card 1 risk down macro context

Broad dollar strength (+1.67% in 20d) plus a 55 basis points 2y repricing keeps both FX pairs pinned below their averages; overlay adds lack macro support.

On Euro / US dollar, Pound / US dollar · for 20 days · would be wrong if: Dollar index gives back more than half the 20-day gain or EURUSD closes above its 50d average.

broad US dollar index · 20-day change, 25 Sep: 1.666%2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 55 basis pointsEuro / US dollarvs 200-day average: −2.21%Pound / US dollarvs 50-day average: −1.21%

macro card 2 neutral macro context

A 50 basis points+ rise in 2y and 10y yields with VIX at 16.3 is a headwind not yet visible in price; equity uptrends hold but the margin for adds is thin.

On Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, Semiconductors · for 20 days · would be wrong if: SPX closes more than 2% below its 50-day average or VIX closes above 22.

10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 51 basis points2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 29 Sep: 55 basis pointsVIX, 30 Sep value not republishedS&P 500vs 50-day average: 0.19%

Cited by Bull, Bear, Bull (rebuttal).

25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC REHEARSAL parse fail no macro context

Open in the run →

Macro analyst — 1 call

call macro --prompt council-macro/v1

sha a14f388dfd95 · 10,673 tokens in · 1,400 out · 4.0 s

parse fail

fallback taken (explained below)

1 call · 4.0 s · 10,673 tokens in / 1,400 out

What went wrong: The reply could not be read as the required JSON, even after a correction turn.

What the system did instead: No macro context this run. Nothing depends on it: code never acts on the macro analyst.