council-book
PAPER · NO BROKER

PAPER Decisions / #4 · 2 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC

Decision #4: no swing trade

A paper run: real data and the real agents, nothing traded, no approval. Published at once through the same public pipeline as a live run (allow-listed fields, licensed news by id only, percent-only). VERIFIED the file re-hashes to its commitment.

No trade

Closest to trading: SYNA long — stopped at Skeptic (the Skeptic said wait).

Core
Held: NDX 35.8% · SEMIS 15.5% · SPX 15.3% · BTC 13.5% · ETH 5.1% · GOLD 3.1%

Sizes are shares of the paper portfolio; swing results are after a declared cost of 1.25% per leg, never the actual one.

Every idea's journey

Each idea the Scout pitched, furthest first, through the six steps: Scout → code gate → Skeptic (blind to the pitch, deepseek model family) → bull and bear → manager (two of three attempts must enter) → swing rules. ✓ passed · ✗ stopped here · — not reached. Open a step for what that agent said.

SYNA long news continuation

Stopped at Skeptic: the Skeptic said wait. skeptic_wait idea:1 if bought: not priced yet (open)

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim onsemi and Synaptics amended merger: onsemi to acquire Synaptics for cash after a competing proposal

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet A revised all-cash merger agreement with a higher price, struck after a third party made an unsolicited competing bid, puts a hard cash floor under the stock and raises the odds of a further bump or a bidding contest. Semis were the day's leading group, so the tape is not fighting the idea.

Catalyst 8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits licensed headline · nasdaq_markets

Levels stop 5% · target 12% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked
Reaction since the news
flat (under 0.5σ either way)
Versus its sector
in line
Trend
up
52-week position
mid-range
News age
0 sessions
Next earnings
2026-11-06
Crowding
low
Earnings date confirmed
no
Sessions since last earnings
39
Filing age (days)
0.89
Latest results age (days)
53
Gross margin change
4.37
Operating margin change
3.33
Revenue growth change
-1.44
Revenue vs a year ago
8.91
Sector fund
XLK

Price and volume readings are shown as words: the exact figures come from a market-data licence that does not allow republishing them.

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Skeptic the Skeptic said wait · priced in: mostly

wait priced in: mostly · news: new · bigger picture: neutral · crowding: medium

  • 8-K and EX-99.1 confirm amended merger: onsemi to acquire Synaptics for cash after a competing proposal, matching the claim. 8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
  • Stock is already redacted (redacted) on the day, far above any reasonable chase limit, with no completed session since the news. live move since the news (σ) news age (sessions)
  • Sector XLK only redacted and index flat, so the move is stock-specific, not beta. XLK 1-day move SPY 1-day move
  • Short interest redacted of float and volume ratio redactedsuggest some crowding; stock is redacted below its 52-week high but redacted above… short interest last day's volume vs normal from 52-week high

What would change its mind A completed session holding the gain at redacted-redacted, or a pullback to a non-chased entry.

The Skeptic's page: its job and record

ACN long post-earnings drift

Stopped at Skeptic: the Skeptic said wait. skeptic_wait idea:2 if bought: not priced yet (open)

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim Accenture fiscal Q4 results beat estimates; shares surged

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet A clean earnings beat in a name the screen shows up redacted on redacted volume, with the technology sector ETF up about redacted. Post-earnings drift setups work when the beat is large and volume confirms it; the move is big but the drift window is still open.

Catalyst licensed headline · cnbc_earnings movers screen row licensed headline · nasdaq_earnings

Levels stop 6% · target 13% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked
Reaction since the news
strongly with the idea (≥ 2σ)
Volume since the news
climax (≥ 3× normal)
Versus its sector
leading
Trend
up
52-week position
mid-range
News age
1 sessions
Next earnings
2026-12-17
Crowding
low
Earnings date confirmed
no
Sessions since last earnings
1
Latest results age (days)
106
Gross margin change
-0.1
Operating margin change
0.14
Revenue growth change
-2.73
Revenue vs a year ago
5.59

Price and volume readings are shown as words: the exact figures come from a market-data licence that does not allow republishing them.

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Skeptic the Skeptic said wait · priced in: mostly

wait priced in: mostly · news: new · bigger picture: neutral · crowding: high

  • Earnings beat is real and new: N:0be067eb reports the FQ4 beat and rally; N:43174ede confirms the pre-open 10/01 release. licensed headline · cnbc_earnings licensed headline · nasdaq_earnings
  • Move since the news close is redacted in one session on redacted volume — a volume climax, not an entry. move since the news (σ) volume since the news vs normal news age (sessions)
  • Move is stock-specific: rel_move_since_pct redactedvs NDX 0.31 and SPX 0.18, so it is not beta and is fully in the price. move vs sector and beta Nasdaq 100 since the news S&P 500 since the news
  • Today the stock is already redacted (redacted) and live move since news (redacted) is far below the close move — the pop is fading. move today (live, σ) live move since the news (σ)
  • No non-price fact beyond the move: fundamentals 106 days old, earnings not confirmed, short interest redacted — nothing the move does not contain. latest results age (days) earnings date confirmed short interest

What would change its mind A pullback that holds the gap and a fresh non-price fact (guidance, contract) not already in the redacted move.

The Skeptic's page: its job and record

MAT long news continuation

Stopped at Gate: no catalyst id. no_catalyst_id idea:3 if bought: not priced yet (open)

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim Mattel moved redacted on redacted normal volume in the 2026-10-01 session

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet An redacted move on nearly redacted volume is a genuine repricing event, and the consumer discretionary ETF was flat, so this is name-specific. Large single-name volume spikes often see follow-through over the next sessions as the news is digested.

Catalyst movers screen row movers screen row

Levels stop 7% · target 15% · time stop 8 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked

No fact card.

Stopped here: no catalyst id. no_catalyst_id

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Core council

Held basis the council's decision · 0 lines re-weighted · 3 valid manager attempts
LineBeforeManager proposedFinal, after the risk engine
NDX35.8%35.8%35.8%
SEMIS15.5%15.5%15.5%
SPX15.3%15.3%15.3%
GOLD3.1%3.1%3.1%
BTC13.5%13.0%13.5%
ETH5.1%5.0%5.1%
OIL0.0%0.0%0.0%
EURUSD0.0%0.0%0.0%
GBPUSD0.0%0.0%0.0%

Held by the risk engine

  • GOLD: over the limit of 3 changes per run R10
  • BTC: too small to trade R11
  • ETH: too small to trade R11

Manager attempts

  • #1: valid · sided with reference
    Decisive fact Every non-frozen line is either reference-only (BTC, ETH), band-pinned (EURUSD), or an overlay whose only add case fails on cost and on K:news:3; the equity lines are frozen at their reference.
    All equity lines are frozen at their reference; OIL's add fails the cost gate with no crude supply shock, and every other line is reference-only or band-pinned. Nothing material changed.
  • #2: valid · sided with reference
    Decisive fact Every line is frozen or reference-only or band-pinned; the only open band (OIL add) fails on mom10d -3.41%, ret1d_sigma +1.00 and no crude supply shock (K:news:3).
    All equity lines frozen at their current levels, crypto reference-only, EURUSD band-pinned, and the sole open band (OIL add) fails the cost gate with no crude supply shock.
  • #3: valid · sided with reference
    Decisive fact Every non-frozen line is either reference-only (BTC, ETH), band-pinned (EURUSD), or an overlay whose only add case (OIL) fails on mom10d -3.41% and 0.96 bps/day carry.
    All equity lines are frozen at their current levels, crypto is reference-only, EURUSD is band-pinned, and OIL's add fails the cost gate; the reference is the right book.

Bull

Every equity line is in an uptrend and the reference already holds it at full size: NDX +3.8% over SMA50 and +11.3% over SMA200 with mom63d +4.2% and dd52 only -0.7%; SEMIS +9.0%/+27.2% with mom10d +11.0%; SPX +0.3%/+6.6% with vol 0.80x of its 1y median. All three are frozen at their current levels, so the honest bull case is simply: hold, pay nothing, and let the trend work. The strongest bearish fact is the 20-day rate move (M:DGS10.chg20 +50 bps to 5.29%), but equities have already absorbed it while sitting within 1.5% of their 52-week highs, and VIX at 16.39 is not a stress reading. The only add I would argue is OIL, where the band opens to +0.50 and the trend is up +30.7% over SMA200; the 10-day -3.4% pullback is the entry, not the thesis. GBPUSD's band also allows an add but its price is below both averages, so I decline it.

Bear

The bull's own numbers undercut the add. OIL is the only line he would move, yet its 10-day momentum is -3.41% and its 1-day move is +1.00 sigma with 46.7% annualized vol: he is buying a pullback in the most volatile line on the book, paying 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry, on a news card that explicitly says the gas/propane records are not a crude supply story (K:news:3) and that the 'higher oil' headline carries no shock (K:news:1). Everything else is frozen, so the honest bear case is: hold the reference, add nothing. The rate move is not absorbed, it is recent: DGS10 +50 bps in 20 days to 5.29%, DGS2 +49 bps, DFF +25 bps, dollar +1.67% in 20 days. SPX sits only +0.32% over its SMA50 with mom10d +0.43% - the trend is intact but flat, and the 2% hysteresis means a small slip flips it to mixed. GOLD is the real damage: -22.82% off its high, -8.04% below SMA200, mom10d -3.92%.

3 analyst cards.

The sealed record (JSON) · every decision · every meeting · the manager's page · the core rules

Inputs

0 items on the reading list. 0 licensed headline(s) shown by id and source only; 0 item(s) cited by an agent, listed first.

The full reading list 0 item(s)

Nothing on the reading list.

Movers screen and market context 0 mover(s) · 0 context row(s)

No mover passed the screen.

PAPER The book after this decision as of 2 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC

−1.92% paper return since 1 Oct 2026, after the declared costs

Market +0.58% Costs −2.50% The paper return splits into what prices did to the holdings and the declared trading costs the paper fills paid (building the book from cash costs the most).

  • Core 88.2%
  • Swing 0.0%
  • Cash 11.8%
Holdings of the paper book
HoldingBookWeightDetailNet return
NDX longcore35.8%core line—
SEMIS longcore15.5%core line—
SPX longcore15.3%core line—
BTC longcore13.4%core line—
ETH longcore5.1%core line—
GOLD longcore3.1%core line—

Every figure is a share of the paper portfolio. Core lines carry the policy's cost per side; swing trades a declared cost per leg, never the actual one.