council-book
PAPER · NO BROKER

The book / Index · via a London-listed fund

SPX S&P 500

Index · via a London-listed fundLSE hoursvehicle: real (preferred)

Position

Weight · target
15.0%
of the portfolio
Reference
15.0%
what the rules alone would hold
Position
Long
long: it gains when the price rises

In the mechanical reference book · core sleeve. The council may move it away from the reference, inside a range code sets from its trend.

Weight across runs

Reference 15.0%Council 15.0%Executed book none (rehearsal: nothing traded)

One published run so far; the chart appears from the second run.

Show as table
Newest run first.
RunReferenceCouncilExecuted bookOutcome
25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC15.0%15.0%—NOT TRADED

Trend

The reference book holds the weight the rules alone would hold: a fixed base weight per line, scaled by its trend (up = full, mixed = ¾, down = ¼) and trimmed when the line is unusually volatile. The council's allowed range around it comes from the same trend. Oldest run first; runs in the same state are merged.

  1. 25 Sep 14:40 UTCup size 1.00 · 15%fixed at 1.00Trend up

What the agents said about SPX

Every claim, answer, concession, card and decision that names this line or cites one of its facts, newest run first. Under each claim, what happened to it. Each opens its place in the run.

25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC REHEARSAL NOT TRADED 6 items

Open this run →

  • Bull · opening claim c2

    SPX uptrend with vol 0.88x median and dd52 -1.1%: no cut evidence, reference 1.0 stands.

    S&P 500trendS&P 500drop from 1-year highS&P 500volatility vs its 1-year normS&P 5003-month change

    • concedes Bear: SPX uptrend and 0.88x vol are real; reference 1.0 stands.

  • Bull · opening claim c6

    Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so the reference is the right level, not leverage.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

    • concedes Bear: Adds do not clear the cost gate; the reference is the right level, not leverage.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): Correct conclusion, but adds fail the cost gate on cost grounds, not because the trend is weak.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: Correct conclusion, but the gate is not the only reason: no add card exists on any line.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: Conceded by both sides and correct: no add clears the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines.

  • Bear claim c4

    No adds clear the cost gate: 15 bps/side round-trip plus carry against a 0.2-sigma move leaves no room on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): no adds clear the cost gate on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.

  • Bear concession concedes

    NDX and SPX uptrends are intact with shallow drawdowns and sub-median vol.

  • Bull · rebuttal claim c1

    The rate shock is real but symmetric: it argues against adds, not for cuts, and no cut card exists on any equity line.

    2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 47 bps10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change, 24 Sep: −16 bpsNasdaq-100trendS&P 500trend

  • Bull · rebuttal claim c6

    No adds clear the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines against a 0.2-sigma move; the reference is the right level, not leverage.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

Trades

No order on this line in a published run.

Latest facts

This run's format published fact ids only, without a facts table; the agents' citations are listed above.