council-book
PAPER · NO BROKER

The book / ETF · via a London-listed fund

SEMIS Semiconductors

ETF · via a London-listed fundLSE hoursvehicle: real (preferred)

Position

Weight · target
13.4%
of the portfolio
Reference
13.4%
what the rules alone would hold
Position
Long
long: it gains when the price rises

In the mechanical reference book · core sleeve. The council may move it away from the reference, inside a range code sets from its trend.

Weight across runs

Reference 13.4%Council 13.4%Executed book none (rehearsal: nothing traded)

One published run so far; the chart appears from the second run.

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Newest run first.
RunReferenceCouncilExecuted bookOutcome
25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC13.4%13.4%—NOT TRADED

Trend

The reference book holds the weight the rules alone would hold: a fixed base weight per line, scaled by its trend (up = full, mixed = ¾, down = ¼) and trimmed when the line is unusually volatile. The council's allowed range around it comes from the same trend. Oldest run first; runs in the same state are merged.

  1. 25 Sep 14:40 UTCup size 1.00 · 13.4%fixed at 1.00Trend up

What the agents said about SEMIS

Every claim, answer, concession, card and decision that names this line or cites one of its facts, newest run first. Under each claim, what happened to it. Each opens its place in the run.

25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC REHEARSAL NOT TRADED 9 items

Open this run →

  • Bull · opening claim c3

    SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are the bear case, but mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x show the drawdown is repairing, not extending.

    Semiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year highSemiconductors10-day changeSemiconductorsvolatility shock

    • contests Bear: A 10-day bounce does not erase mom63d -9.4% or dd52 -13.5%; 43.5% vol is the book's highest and the shock gauge is a 5-day measure.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.

  • Bull · opening claim c6

    Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so the reference is the right level, not leverage.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

    • concedes Bear: Adds do not clear the cost gate; the reference is the right level, not leverage.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): Correct conclusion, but adds fail the cost gate on cost grounds, not because the trend is weak.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: Correct conclusion, but the gate is not the only reason: no add card exists on any line.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: Conceded by both sides and correct: no add clears the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines.

  • Bull · opening concession concedes

    SEMIS 63-day momentum is negative and its drawdown is the deepest of the equity lines.

  • Bear claim c1

    SEMIS carries the book's highest vol (43.5% ann) with mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5%; the 10-day bounce is not a repaired trend.

    Semiconductorsyearly volatilitySemiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year highSemiconductors10-day change

  • Bear claim c4

    No adds clear the cost gate: 15 bps/side round-trip plus carry against a 0.2-sigma move leaves no room on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): no adds clear the cost gate on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.

  • Bear concession concedes

    SEMIS 10-day momentum is +9.5% and its vol shock is 0.74x, so the near-term tape is improving.

  • Bull · rebuttal claim c2

    SEMIS: mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x vs 1.12x median shows the near-term tape improving; with no cut card, reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.

    Semiconductors10-day changeSemiconductorsvolatility shockSemiconductorsvolatility vs its 1-year normSemiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year high

  • Bull · rebuttal claim c6

    No adds clear the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines against a 0.2-sigma move; the reference is the right level, not leverage.

    Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

  • Single-agent control, attempt 3 decisive fact

    NDX and SEMIS are in uptrends with bands pinned at ref +1.00 and no qualifying card; SEMIS mom63d -9.4% vs mom10d +9.5% is a bounce, not a cut trigger.

    Semiconductors3-month change

Trades

No order on this line in a published run.

Latest facts

This run's format published fact ids only, without a facts table; the agents' citations are listed above.