PAPER Decisions / #2 · 1 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC

Decision #2: no swing trade

A paper run: real data and the real agents, nothing traded, no approval. Published at once through the same public pipeline as a live run (allow-listed fields, licensed news by id only, percent-only). VERIFIED the file re-hashes to its commitment.

No trade

Closest to trading: NVCR long — stopped at Rules (too little trading volume), after the manager voted 3 of 3 to enter.

Core: Held: NDX 35.9% · SPX 15.4% · SEMIS 15.3% · BTC 13.3% · ETH 5.1% · GOLD 3.1%
Swing budget: 20% swing / 80% core, set by the council (3 valid votes). Idle swing money is invested in the core.

Sizes are shares of the paper portfolio; swing results are after a declared cost of 1.25% per leg, never the actual one.

Every idea's journey

Each idea the Scout pitched, furthest first, through the six steps: Scout → code gate → Skeptic (blind to the pitch, deepseek model family) → bull and bear → manager (two of three attempts must enter) → swing rules. ✓ passed · ✗ stopped here · — not reached. Open a step for what that agent said.

NVCR long news continuation

Stopped at Rules: too little trading volume. S8:illiquid idea:2 if bought: −2.0% net (open)

Scout pitched : passed
Gate passed : passed
Skeptic pass : passed
Debate argued : passed
PM 3/3 : passed
Rules S8 : stopped here too little trading volume

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim Japan MHLW approved Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet A new national regulatory approval for a named indication is a durable catalyst: it opens a market the company did not previously serve and is not a one-day headline. NVCR is not in the movers screen universe, so I cannot see how much of the approval is already in the price; the approval is dated 15 September but the 8-K disclosing it is in this slot.

Catalyst 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Levels stop 8% · target 20% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked

Reaction since the news: flat (under 0.5σ either way)
Versus its sector: in line
Trend: mixed
52-week position: mid-range
News age: 0 sessions
Next earnings: 2026-10-29
Crowding: elevated
Earnings date confirmed: no
Sessions since last earnings: 49
Filing age (days): 0.24
Latest results age (days): 70
Gross margin change: 3.72
Operating margin change: 19.13
Revenue growth change: 3.31
Revenue vs a year ago: 15.6
Sector fund: XLV

Price and volume readings are shown as words: the exact figures come from a market-data licence that does not allow republishing them.

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Skeptic the Skeptic passed it · priced in: no

pass priced in: no · news: new · bigger picture: neutral · crowding: medium

8-K EX-99.1 states Japan MHLW approved Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer, matching the claim exactly. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Approval is a hard, new regulatory catalyst; news age 0 sessions and filing age 0.24 days, so nothing is stale or restated. news age (sessions) filing age (days)
Reaction is flat-to-slightly-against: close sigma redacted live redacted, rel_move redacted so no chase and no stock-specific move against the long. move since the news (σ) live move since the news (σ) move vs sector and beta
Crowding elevated: redacted short interest of float, redacted, vol_ratio redacted, but redacted below the 52-week high and redacted… short interest days to cover from 52-week high last day's volume vs normal

What would change its mind A stock-specific move of redacted or more in the long's direction on heavy volume before entry, or a restatement showing the approval was already known.

The Skeptic's page: its job and record

Debate the bull's and the bear's case

Bull (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

Three ideas survive on the same logic: hard, dated, company-specific catalysts disclosed hours ago with no completed session to price them. idea:2 is the cleanest — a national regulator (Japan MHLW) approved Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer, a named new indication in a market NVCR did not serve. The Skeptic passed it. Reaction is flat: close sigma redacted live redacted, rel_move redacted so there is no chase and no adverse stock-specific move. idea:5 is a wait, not a reject: the 8-K confirms convertible debt converting to equity at close plus a planned PIPE ahead of a Nasdaq listing, and the live move is only redacted with the stock in an uptrend (ret_20d redacted, ret_60d redacted). idea:4 I concede: redacted (redacted) on the news day with XLF/SPX/NDX flat is a stock-specific rejection of the deal, and I will not fight it. I would take idea:2 and idea:5 at reduced size, skip idea:4, and keep the swing budget at redacted given the flat tape.

Japan MHLW approval of Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer is a hard, new regulatory catalyst, disclosed 0.24 days ago. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits filing age (days) news age (sessions)
The market has not moved on it: close sigma redacted live redacted, relative move redacted so entry is not chasing a spike. move since the news (σ) live move since the news (σ) move vs sector and beta
Positioning is supportive: redacted of float short, redacted, and the stock sits redacted below its 52-week high. short interest days to cover from 52-week high
The Skeptic passed the idea with no flags, and the approval text matches the claim exactly. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits news age (sessions)

Bear (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

The bull's own concession on idea:4 is the tell: a hard 8-K with a completed acquisition, a strategic-alternatives review and a new CEO was met with redacted (redacted) while XLF/SPX/NDX were flat. That is the market reading the same filing and rejecting it — the strongest evidence that 'hard catalyst + no close yet' is not automatically an edge. idea:2 is the only defensible long, and even there the bull overstates it: the approval is dated redacted September but disclosed redacted October, so the news is a delayed 8-K, not a fresh event; the stock is in a mixed trend, redacted over redacted days and redacted over redacted with elevated crowding and redacted days to cover — a crowded short base that can squeeze but also means the approval was anticipated. XLV fell redacted the prior session, a headwind for a health-care long. idea:5 is a wait, not a trade: a follow-up to a previously announced SPAC combination, live redacted, vol_ratio redacted near the 52-week high is a possible climax, and the PIPE is only 'planned'. Zero new trades is the honest answer; keep the budget at redacted.

The approval is dated 15 September but the 8-K disclosing it is dated 1 October — a delayed disclosure, not a fresh event, so the market had weeks to price it. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits filing age (days)
NVCR trend is mixed with ret_20d redacted and ret_60d redacted; the long is fighting a downtrend, not riding one. trend 20-day return 60-day return
Crowding is elevated with redacted of float short and redacted — a crowded base that can squeeze but also signals the approval was anticipated. crowding short interest days to cover
Health care is a headwind: XLV fell redacted (redacted) in the prior session, and NVCR's sector ETF is XLV. XLV 1-day move sector fund

The Bull's page · the Bear's page

PM enter votes 3 of 3 (two are needed)

#1 enter stop 8% · target 20% · 10 sessions: Hard new national approval, disclosed redacted days ago, flat reaction (live redacted) so no chase, redacted below the 52-week high with redacted days…
#2 enter stop 8% · target 20% · 10 sessions: Hard new national approval for a named indication, disclosed hours ago, flat reaction so no chase, and redacted below the 52-week high leaves room to the target.
#3 enter stop 8% · target 20% · 10 sessions: Hard new national approval for a named indication, disclosed hours ago, no completed session to price it, flat reaction so no chase, and redacted below the 52-week high…

The manager's page: its job and record

Rules too little trading volume

Too little trading volume. S8:illiquid

Every swing rule, with its numbers

PLMK long news continuation

Stopped at PM: the manager passed. pm_pass idea:5 if bought: −2.5% net (open)

Scout pitched : passed
Gate passed : passed
Skeptic wait : passed
Debate argued : passed
PM 0/3 : stopped here the manager passed
Rules not reached : not reached

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim 8-K: convertible debt to convert to equity at close; new PIPE planned for geothermal project

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet The joint release describes a simplified capital structure with existing convertible debt converting to equity at close and an additional planned PIPE, ahead of a proposed Nasdaq listing for the CTR business combination. Deleveraging plus a listing path is a multi-session catalyst. PLMK is not in the movers screen universe, so the reaction is unknown to me.

Catalyst 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Levels stop 8% · target 20% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked

Reaction since the news: flat (under 0.5σ either way)
Versus its sector: in line
Trend: up
52-week position: mid-range
News age: 0 sessions
Next earnings: 2026-11-13
Crowding: unknown
Earnings date confirmed: no
Sessions since last earnings: 32
Filing age (days): 0.22
Latest results age (days): 48
Sector fund: XLU

Price and volume readings are shown as words: the exact figures come from a market-data licence that does not allow republishing them.

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Skeptic the Skeptic said wait · priced in: no

wait priced in: no · news: follow up · bigger picture: neutral · crowding: unknown

The 8-K/EX-99.1 does say convertible debt converts to equity at close and a new PIPE is planned, matching the claim. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
It is a follow-up to a previously announced business combination, not a new hard catalyst like an earnings beat or approval. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
No completed session since the news (news_age_sessions redacted move_since_news_close_sigma redacted); the live move is redacted against the long. news age (sessions) move since the news (σ) live move since the news (σ)
Volume ratio redactedon the news day with the stock near its 52-week high (redacted) is a possible climax; short interest is unknown. last day's volume vs normal from 52-week high crowding

What would change its mind A completed close in the trade's direction by about redacted-redacted, or a hard new fact (PIPE terms, financing close) beyond the release.

The Skeptic's page: its job and record

Debate the bull's and the bear's case

Bull (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

The 8-K confirms convertible debt converting to equity at close plus a planned PIPE ahead of a proposed Nasdaq listing — a multi-session capital-structure catalyst. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits filing age (days)
The adverse reaction is small: live redacted, close sigma redacted and the trend is up with ret_20d redacted and ret_60d redacted. live move since the news (σ) move since the news (σ) trend 20-day return
Volume ratio redactedon the news day is real attention, not a dead tape; the stock is only redacted below its 52-week high. last day's volume vs normal from 52-week high

Bear (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

PLMK is a follow-up to a previously announced SPAC combination, not a new hard catalyst; the PIPE is only 'planned' and the business combination has not closed. 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits news age (sessions)
vol_ratio redacted with the stock redacted below its 52-week high is a possible climax; live move redacted against the long and no completed close to confirm. last day's volume vs normal from 52-week high live move since the news (σ) move since the news (σ)

The Bull's page · the Bear's page

PM enter votes 0 of 3 (two are needed)

#1 pass: Follow-up to a previously announced SPAC combination, PIPE only planned; vol_ratio redacted near the 52-week high is a possible climax and no completed close confirms the…
#2 pass: Follow-up to a previously announced SPAC deal with the PIPE only planned; vol_ratio redacted near the 52-week high looks like a climax and no close confirms it.
#3 pass: A follow-up to a previously announced SPAC combination, PIPE only planned, no completed close, live move against the long, and vol_ratio redacted near the 52-week high…

The manager's page: its job and record

LRHC long news continuation

Stopped at Skeptic: the Skeptic rejected it. skeptic_reject idea:4 if bought: −6.7% net (open)

Scout pitched : passed
Gate passed : passed
Skeptic reject : stopped here the Skeptic rejected it
Debate not reached : not reached
PM not reached : not reached
Rules not reached : not reached

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim 8-K: acquired NVIDIA GPUs; intends to evaluate strategic alternatives for real estate operations

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet The filing combines a completed asset acquisition with a stated intent to review strategic alternatives for the legacy real estate business and a new CEO to lead the transformation. That is a change-of-direction catalyst rather than a routine disclosure. LRHC is not in the movers screen universe, so the reaction is unknown to me.

Catalyst 8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of…

Levels stop 12% · target 30% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked

Reaction since the news: flat (under 0.5σ either way)
Versus its sector: in line
Trend: down
52-week position: near the low
News age: 0 sessions
Next earnings: 2026-11-20
Crowding: low
Earnings date confirmed: no
Sessions since last earnings: 26
Filing age (days): 0.24
Latest results age (days): 41
Gross margin change: 2.35
Operating margin change: 1.08
Revenue growth change: -18.36
Revenue vs a year ago: -25.6
Sector fund: XLF

Price and volume readings are shown as words: the exact figures come from a market-data licence that does not allow republishing them.

Every swing rule, with its numbers

Skeptic the Skeptic rejected it · priced in: fully

reject priced in: fully · news: new · bigger picture: against · crowding: low

The stock is down redacted (redacted) on the day of the news, a stock-specific move clearly against the long side. live move since the news (σ) move today (live) news age (sessions)
No completed close since the news (news_age_sessions=0), so there is no confirmation of the catalyst; the live reaction is adverse. move since the news (σ) news age (sessions)
Weak fundamentals and downtrend: revenue redacted yoy, decelerating, ret_60d redacted, near 52-week low. revenue vs a year ago revenue growth change 60-day return from 52-week high
Sector and index flat over the window (XLF, SPX, NDX all redacted), so the drop is not beta — it is stock-specific. sector move since the news S&P 500 since the news Nasdaq 100 since the news

What would change its mind A completed close that stabilizes or reverses the redacted drop, with a new fact beyond the move.

The Skeptic's page: its job and record

Debate the bull's and the bear's case traced only

Bull (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

I concede idea:4: redacted (redacted) on the news day with XLF, SPX and NDX all flat is a stock-specific rejection, not beta. live move since the news (σ) move today (live) sector move since the news S&P 500 since the news

Bear (one argument for the batch idea:2, idea:4, idea:5)

A hard 8-K with a completed acquisition and new CEO was met with redacted while XLF/SPX/NDX were flat — the market read the filing and rejected it. live move since the news (σ) move today (live) sector move since the news S&P 500 since the news 8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of…
LRHC is near its 52-week low (dist_52w_high redacted), trend down, revenue redacted yoy and decelerating, ret_60d redacted — a falling knife, not a continuation. from 52-week high trend revenue vs a year ago revenue growth change 60-day return

The Bull's page · the Bear's page

PM enter votes 0 of 3 (two are needed) traced only

#1 pass: The same filing was met with redacted (redacted) while XLF/SPX/NDX were flat: a stock-specific rejection of the deal, in a downtrend with revenue redacted yoy.
#2 pass: The market read the same 8-K and sold it redacted with sector and index flat; a stock-specific rejection of the deal, not a continuation setup.
#3 pass: The market read the same 8-K and rejected it: redacted stock-specific with flat sector and index, in a downtrend with shrinking revenue. No edge in fighting that.

The manager's page: its job and record

Traced with nothing blocking it, this idea would have ended at the manager (manager 0/3): the manager passed.

DPLS long news continuation

Stopped at Gate: no fact card (stale or missing bars). no_facts idea:3

Scout pitched : passed
Gate stopped : stopped here no fact card (stale or missing bars)
Skeptic not reached : not reached
Debate not reached : not reached
PM not reached : not reached
Rules not reached : not reached

Scout the pitch, the catalyst and the levels

Claim 8-K: exclusive patent license agreement with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory

Thesis · why it is not priced in yet An exclusive patent license with the Air Force Research Laboratory is a concrete, named counterparty agreement rather than a memorandum, and the company frames it as the foundation for a space-based power grid program. DPLS is not in the movers screen universe, so the reaction is unknown to me; OTC names often take several sessions to absorb a filing of this type.

Catalyst 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Levels stop 12% · target 30% · time stop 10 sessions (distances from the entry)

The Scout's page: its job and record

Gate the fact card the code checked

No fact card.

Stopped here: no fact card (stale or missing bars). no_facts

Every swing rule, with its numbers

The Scout looked at and passed on: JBL, MKC, NOC, GIS, ITW, ACGL, KHC, HSY, HIG, HII.

This run traced every idea through every stage, so later steps also ran for ideas the real pipeline had stopped (marked "traced only"); 2 idea(s) would have ended elsewhere.

Core council

Held basis the council's decision · 0 lines re-weighted · 3 valid manager attempts

Line	Before	Manager proposed	Final, after the risk engine
NDX	35.9%	35.9%	35.9%
SEMIS	15.3%	15.3%	15.3%
SPX	15.4%	15.4%	15.4%
GOLD	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
BTC	13.3%	13.0%	13.3%
ETH	5.1%	5.0%	5.1%
OIL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EURUSD	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GBPUSD	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Held by the risk engine

GOLD: over the limit of 3 changes per run R10
BTC: too small to trade R11
ETH: too small to trade R11

Manager attempts

#1: valid · sided with reference
Decisive fact All four core lines are frozen with band [+1.03,+1.03] and may:none, and no K: card exists, so no deviation is admissible anywhere this cycle.
Frozen bands and may:none on NDX, SEMIS, SPX, GOLD; no K: cards; OIL/GBPUSD adds fail the cost gate on 0.96 bps/day carry. Reference everywhere.
#2: valid · sided with reference
Decisive fact All four core lines are frozen with band [+1.03,+1.03] and may:none, and no K: card exists, so no deviation is admissible or justified this cycle.
Frozen bands and may:none on NDX, SEMIS, SPX, GOLD; no K: cards; OIL/GBPUSD adds fail the cost gate on 0.96 bps/day carry into negative 10-day momentum.
#3: valid · sided with reference
Decisive fact All four core lines are frozen with band [+1.03,+1.03] and may:none, and no K: card exists, so no deviation is admissible or justified this cycle.
Frozen bands and may:none on NDX, SEMIS, SPX, GOLD; no K: cards; OIL/GBPUSD adds fail the cost gate on carry versus negative 10-day momentum. Reference stands.

Bull

The core equity lines are all in uptrends and already sit at the reference: NDX +3.6% over SMA50 and +11.1% over SMA200 with mom10d +5.1%, dd52 only -1.0%, vol 0.91x median and vol shock 0.58x; SPX +6.5% over SMA200, dd52 -1.7%, vol 0.83x median. Nothing in the pack justifies cutting them, and they are frozen anyway, so the honest position is to hold full size. SEMIS is the one line where I would not add: mom63d is -5.1% and dd52 -13.1% even though the trend reads up, so the reference is the right level. The strongest bearish fact is the 20-day jump in DGS10 (+51 bps to 5.26%) and DGS2 (+55 bps), which pressures long-duration equity; but NDX is only 1.0% off its 52-week high with vol shock 0.58x, so the tape has already absorbed it. OIL is the only add I would argue: trend up, +27.4% over SMA200, mom63d +41.0%, band allows +0.50, but mom10d -6.7% and carry 0.96 bps/day make a 0.25 add marginal against the cost gate, so I hold at 0.00. GBPUSD band allows +0.50 but price is below both averages and mom10d -0.8%, so no add.

Bear

The bull's own numbers undercut his calm: DGS10 +51bps to 5.26% and DGS2 +55bps in 20 days is a repricing, not noise, and VIX 16.34 is the level from which shocks start. Every core line is frozen with band [+1.03,+1.03] and may:none, so no cut is even admissible this cycle; the honest bear case is that the reference is the ceiling, not a floor. SEMIS is the tell: mom63d -5.1% and dd52 -13.1% while the trend still reads up, i.e. a broken intermediate trend masked by a 10-day bounce. GOLD is already at its downtrend reference +0.25 with dd52 -23.2%. I propose no deviations: nothing is admitted, and OIL/GBPUSD adds pay 0.96bps/day carry into negative 10-day momentum.

0 analyst cards.

The sealed record (JSON) · every decision · every meeting · the manager's page · the core rules

Inputs

68 items on the reading list: 35 licensed headline · 33 public item. 35 licensed headline(s) shown by id and source only; 4 item(s) cited by an agent, listed first.

The full reading list 68 item(s)

Item	Source	Age	Tickers
cited 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	0.7 h	DPLS
cited 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.4 h	PLMK
cited 8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.7 h	NVCR
cited 8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of…	—	5.7 h	LRHC
licensed headline N:2f306ec9	cnbc_top	0 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:3127a27a	marketwatch_top	0 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:d0a9a256	marketwatch_top	0.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:17856b9c	nasdaq_earnings	0.7 h	market-wide
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	0.8 h	MATW
Jefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy	—	1.2 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:3a24329f	cnbc_top	1.2 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:87b70003	marketwatch_top	1.4 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:9674c771	cnbc_top	1.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:e1a9f520	cnbc_top	1.7 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:67ef6e91	cnbc_top	1.8 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:ec2981ff	marketwatch_top	1.8 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:09a02316	cnbc_top	1.8 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:3eabcd70	marketwatch_top	1.9 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:ac5392a9	marketwatch_top	2.4 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:a714f8a2	marketwatch_top	2.6 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:12c7d911	cnbc_top	2.7 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:48157cc4	cnbc_top	2.7 h	market-wide
6-K: report of a foreign private issuer	—	2.9 h	CCEP
licensed headline N:a50f62b0	marketwatch_top	3 h	market-wide
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	3.1 h	SHBI
Treasury announces 4-Week Bill	—	3.1 h	market-wide
4-Week Bill Treasury Auction Results	—	3.1 h	market-wide
Treasury announces 8-Week Bill	—	3.1 h	market-wide
8-Week Bill Treasury Auction Results	—	3.1 h	market-wide
8-K: Item 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; Item 8.01 Other Events	—	3.2 h	AMOD
8-K: Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	3.4 h	MOJO
Treasury announces 26-Week Bill	—	3.6 h	market-wide
Treasury announces 29-Year 10-Month Bond	—	3.6 h	market-wide
Treasury announces 6-Week Bill	—	3.6 h	market-wide
8-K: Item 8.01 Other Events	—	3.7 h	OSBC
licensed headline N:824011f6	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:489eaa2b	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:e462cbe4	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:39f742fd	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:4ed93f29	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:2b21eb06	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:2279a804	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:6a4a7594	benzinga	4.5 h	market-wide
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	4.9 h	WTS
8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.2 h	KITT
8-K: Item 8.01 Other Events	—	5.4 h	GANX
8-K: Item 8.01 Other Events; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.4 h	BCDA
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	5.4 h	APUS
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	5.5 h	WAMFF
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	5.5 h	LDOS
8-K: Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.6 h	SINT
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain…	—	5.6 h	ROP
8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.7 h	DARE
8-K: Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers	—	5.7 h	CHH
8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits	—	5.7 h	FCCO
8-K: Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Item 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet…	—	5.7 h	USBC
6-K: report of a foreign private issuer	—	6.4 h	FER
8-K: Item 8.01 Other Events	—	6.4 h	CTVA
licensed headline N:e234a67e	cnbc_earnings	18.5 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:4416f4d4	nasdaq_earnings	22 h	MU, NVDA, GOOGL
licensed headline N:43174ede	nasdaq_earnings	22.7 h	ACN, MKC
licensed headline N:5e0f6ebd	nasdaq_earnings	23.6 h	NFLX
licensed headline N:8dcbf665	nasdaq_earnings	24.7 h	MU, PRGS
licensed headline N:76da8127	nasdaq_earnings	25.6 h	HRL
licensed headline N:297ac584	nasdaq_earnings	28.2 h	ARHS, LOVE, WSM
licensed headline N:63a96423	fda_press	29.2 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:d4cdb31f	fda_press	45.6 h	market-wide
licensed headline N:b69b744c	nasdaq_earnings	46.7 h	JBL, FDS

Licensed headlines (RSS and the broker's feed) are shown by id and source only; public-domain items (SEC, Federal Reserve, BLS, …) with their title and link.

Movers screen and market context 30 mover(s) · 14 context row(s)

Ticker	Last day's move	Volume vs normal	Sector
JBL	down sharply (3σ or more)	>4×	BusEq
MKC	down sharply (3σ or more)	2-4×	NoDur
NOC	down sharply (3σ or more)	1-2×	BusEq
GIS	down sharply (3σ or more)	1-2×	NoDur
ITW	down (2–3σ)	2-4×	Manuf
ACGL	down (2–3σ)	1-2×	Money
KHC	down (2–3σ)	<1×	NoDur
HSY	down (2–3σ)	1-2×	NoDur
HIG	down (2–3σ)	1-2×	Money
HII	up (2–3σ)	1-2×	Manuf
FICO	down (under 2σ)	>4×	Other
JBL	down sharply (3σ or more)	>4×	BusEq
WBD	flat (under 0.5σ)	>4×	—
GEN	up (under 2σ)	2-4×	BusEq
MDT	down (under 2σ)	2-4×	Hlth
SNPS	up (under 2σ)	2-4×	—
EXC	down (under 2σ)	2-4×	Utils
CBOE	up (2–3σ)	2-4×	Money
MGM	down (under 2σ)	2-4×	Other
ITW	down (2–3σ)	2-4×	Manuf
LULU	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
MNST	flat (under 0.5σ)	1-2×	NoDur
CTVA	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
ADM	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
STZ	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
RL	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
BG	down (under 2σ)	<1×	NoDur
NWSA	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur
HRL	flat (under 0.5σ)	1-2×	NoDur
BF.B	flat (under 0.5σ)	<1×	NoDur

The screen is built from licensed market data: moves are shown as bands of the stock's normal daily move (σ), never the figure.

SPY (S&P 500 ETF) was flat (under 0.5σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) was flat (under 0.5σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
VIXY (VIX short-term futures ETF, volatility proxy) rose (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLP (consumer staples sector ETF) fell (2–3σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLI (industrials sector ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLV (health care sector ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLF (financials sector ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLB (materials sector ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLU (utilities sector ETF) fell (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLK (technology sector ETF) rose (under 2σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLC (communication services sector ETF) was flat (under 0.5σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLY (consumer discretionary sector ETF) was flat (under 0.5σ) in the 2026-09-30 session
XLE (energy sector ETF) was flat (under 0.5σ) in the 2026-09-30 session

PAPER The book after this decision as of 1 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC

−2.50% paper return since 1 Oct 2026, after the declared costs

Market 0.00% Costs −2.50% The paper return splits into what prices did to the holdings and the declared trading costs the paper fills paid (building the book from cash costs the most).

Core 88.2%
Swing 0.0%
Cash 11.8%

Holdings of the paper book
Holding	Book	Weight	Detail	Net return
NDX long	core	35.9%	core line	—
SPX long	core	15.4%	core line	—
SEMIS long	core	15.3%	core line	—
BTC long	core	13.3%	core line	—
ETH long	core	5.1%	core line	—
GOLD long	core	3.1%	core line	—

Every figure is a share of the paper portfolio. Core lines carry the policy's cost per side; swing trades a declared cost per leg, never the actual one.

No trade

1Every idea's journey

2Core council

Held by the risk engine

Manager attempts

3Inputs

Every idea's journey

Core council

Inputs