council-book
PAPER · NO BROKER

Runs / 2026-09-25T1440Z

Council run · 25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC

Every agent in the order it ran: what it saw, what it said, and what happened to it.

Run 2026-09-25T1440Z25 Sep, 15:27 UTC

REHEARSAL NOT TRADED kill switch: normal SEAL VERIFIED1 call failed

This run ran late: slot 14:40 UTC, ran 15:27 UTC (47 min late). A scheduled review. Model deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud, thinking off.

Model calls
10 of 11 ok
Tokens
73,393 in
6,234 out
Model time
23.3 s
all calls added up
Risk checks
32 of 32
all passed
Manager agreement
valid attempts made the same call on every line

1 model call failed; the run fell back safely

  • Macro analyst gave a reply that could not be read no macro context (nothing depends on it)

Rehearsal — no broker account is connected yet

The council ran on real market data, but nothing was traded and no one needed to approve anything.

At a glance

The council reviewed its 9 lines on 25 Sep 2026, 14:40 UTC — a rehearsal, so nothing was traded.

The bull and the bear both argued to keep the reference; the portfolio manager kept every line at the mechanical reference.

The risk engine passed all 32 checks and changed nothing. A live run starting from an empty book would have needed 6 orders, about 0.29% of the portfolio in costs.

1 model call failed and the run fell back safely: the macro analyst gave a reply that could not be read.

  1. 1CODE

    Data

    9 lines read

    trend: 7 up · 1 mixed · 1 down

    ok

  2. 2CODE

    Officers

    no volatility shock

    no event block · release dates not loaded (release blocks unchecked)

    calendar incomplete

  3. 3LLM

    Analysts

    no news cards

    macro: no card

    1 call failed

  4. 4LLM

    Bull

    opening: holds the reference · 6 claims

    answered the bear, conceding 4

    ok

  5. 5LLM

    Bear

    holds the reference

    accepts 5 of the bull's points, disputes 1

    ok

  6. 6LLM

    Portfolio manager ×3

    3/3 agree: hold the reference

    ok

  7. 7CODE

    Risk engine

    32 of 32 checks pass

    nothing held back

    ok

  8. 8CODE

    Plan & costs

    no trade: rehearsal

    a live run would need 6 orders from an empty book (≈0.29% in costs)

    ok

  9. 9HUMAN

    Human approval

    not needed: rehearsal

    not needed

CODE fixed rules in code · LLM a language model · HUMAN a person. Each step opens that agent's part of the run.

Bull makes the case for a set of positions (it may still cut a line) · Bear attacks it, claim by claim · Portfolio manager decides, within limits · Risk engine is code that checks every limit.

What each step does
  1. Data — reads prices for every line
  2. Officers — flag volatility shocks and scheduled events
  3. Analysts — turn news into cited evidence cards
  4. Bull — makes the case for a set of positions (it may still cut a line)
  5. Bear — attacks the bull's case, claim by claim
  6. Portfolio manager ×3 — decides, within limits: three separate attempts, the most typical is used
  7. Risk engine — code that checks every limit and can hold a change back
  8. Plan & costs — prices each order and builds the proposal, or finds nothing to do
  9. Human approval — approves every order

Control — one agent, no analysts or debate: held the reference — same as the council. It never trades.

Shorthand the agents use
dd52
drop from 1-year high
mom10d
10-day price change
mom63d
3-month price change
SMA50, SMA200
the average price over the last 50 or 200 days
vol 0.99x
volatility as a multiple of its usual level; 1x is normal
bp, bps
basis points: hundredths of a percent (100 bps = 1%)
DGS10
10-year Treasury yield
DGS2
2-year Treasury yield
VIX
the VIX: how much US stocks are expected to swing
Tickers
NDX Nasdaq-100 · SEMIS Semiconductors · SPX S&P 500 · BTC Bitcoin · ETH Ether · OIL Crude oil

What changed

Every line starts from the mechanical reference: the weight the rules alone would hold: a fixed base weight per line, scaled by its trend (up = full, mixed = ¾, down = ¼) and trimmed when the line is unusually volatile. The council may move a few lines; then the risk engine may hold some back. Size is how much of a line's full allocation is held (1.00 = the full amount the rules give it); the percentage is its weight in the portfolio.

No line changed: the council held the mechanical reference.

9 lines stayed at the reference: Nasdaq-100, Semiconductors, S&P 500, Gold, Bitcoin, Ether, Crude oil, Euro / US dollar, Pound / US dollar.

Risk engine notes: no broker snapshot: current book taken as flat.

Code officers CODE

Code that reads the data, sets the reference and flags shocks and events before any model speaks. Each officer's page says what it reads.

↑ Contents

Data steward

incomplete

Read 9 lines (trend 7 up · 1 mixed · 1 down). Its record →

What it saw

Completed daily bars for every line, public macro series and the calendar of scheduled events, each stamped with the time it became available. Only facts available at the slot start count.

What it did

  • Read 9 lines; trend 7 up · 1 mixed · 1 down.
  • Economic-release dates not loaded, so data-release blocks could not be checked.

Reference book

ok

Would hold 6 of 9 lines, 88.7% of the portfolio in total. Its record →

The reference for every line (9)
LineTrend1 daySizeWeight
Nasdaq-100 NDXup —1.0035%
Semiconductors SEMISup —1.0013.4%
S&P 500 SPXup —1.0015%
Gold GOLDmixed —0.759%
Bitcoin BTCup —1.0011.3%
Ether ETHup —1.005%
Crude oil OILup —0.000%
Euro / US dollar EURUSDdown —0.000%
Pound / US dollar GBPUSDup —0.000%

It is the default position, the centre of each line's allowed range and the fallback when the council fails. The council may move at most 3 lines away from it.

Event officer

calendar incomplete

No scheduled event near this run. Its record →

The public calendar of scheduled macro releases (Fed decisions, inflation, jobs) — incomplete this run.

Economic-release dates not loaded, so data-release blocks could not be checked.

News analyst LLM

Reads public RSS feeds and SEC filings and writes evidence cards that cite them by id. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
News analyst — 1 call

call news --prompt council-news/v1

sha 4c2cb3b72e9b · 4,950 tokens in · 6 out · 0.5 s

ok

1 call · 0.5 s · 4,950 tokens in / 6 out

What it saw

The public RSS feed and SEC filing items of the pack, cited by id (licensed text is never republished), and the code cards.

What it said

No cards.

Macro analyst LLM

Describes the macro regime and its drivers from public macro data; context only. Its record across runs →

parse fail

↑ Contents
Macro analyst — 1 call

call macro --prompt council-macro/v1

sha a14f388dfd95 · 10,673 tokens in · 1,400 out · 4.0 s

parse fail

fallback taken (explained below)

1 call · 4.0 s · 10,673 tokens in / 1,400 out

What went wrong: The reply could not be read as the required JSON, even after a correction turn.

What the system did instead: No macro context this run. Nothing depends on it: code never acts on the macro analyst.

What it saw

Macro series from FRED (values shown only for publishable series) and the calendar.

Bull · opening LLM

Opens the debate with a case for a set of positions, then answers the bear. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
Bull · opening — 1 call

call bull_open --prompt council-bull_open/v1

sha c312f8c40adb · 5,004 tokens in · 1,054 out · 3.0 s

ok

1 call · 3.0 s · 5,004 tokens in / 1,054 out

What it saw

The fact pack, the analysts' and officers' cards and the allowed range of each line. It speaks first, so it answers no one.

What it said

Stance: Keep the reference

Every equity line is in an uptrend and the reference already holds it at full size: NDX +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200 with mom10d +4.7%, dd52 only -0.9% and vol 0.99x median; SPX +1.0%/+7.4% with vol 0.88x; SEMIS +7.7%/+26.7% with mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x. Nothing in the pack justifies cutting any of them, and the bands allow adds only where the cost gate clears. The strongest bearish fact is SEMIS mom63d -9.4% with dd52 -13.5% and vol 1.12x median, but the 10-day tape is +9.5% and the shock gauge is 0.74x, so the drawdown is being repaired, not extended. GOLD is mixed and s…

Shortened when published: early runs kept only the first 600 characters of each argument; later runs publish it whole.

6 claims (the bear must answer each)

  1. c1 NDX is in an uptrend, +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200, mom10d +4.7%, dd52 -0.9%, vol 0.99x median: reference 1.0 is correct.Nasdaq-100trendNasdaq-100vs 50-day averageNasdaq-100vs 200-day averageNasdaq-10010-day changeNasdaq-100drop from 1-year highNasdaq-100volatility vs its 1-year norm
  2. c2 SPX uptrend with vol 0.88x median and dd52 -1.1%: no cut evidence, reference 1.0 stands.S&P 500trendS&P 500drop from 1-year highS&P 500volatility vs its 1-year normS&P 5003-month change
  3. c3 SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are the bear case, but mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x show the drawdown is repairing, not extending.Semiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year highSemiconductors10-day changeSemiconductorsvolatility shock
  4. c4 GOLD is mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50 and -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: reference 0.75 is the honest level, no cut card exists.GoldtrendGoldvs 50-day averageGoldvs 200-day averageGold3-month changeGoldvolatility shock
  5. c5 Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0: BTC +12.6% over SMA50, ETH +14.8%, both uptrends, no deviation possible or needed.BitcointrendBitcoinvs 50-day averageEthertrendEthervs 50-day average
  6. c6 Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so the reference is the right level, not leverage.Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

Concedes

  • SEMIS 63-day momentum is negative and its drawdown is the deepest of the equity lines.
  • GOLD sits below both averages and is 21% off its 52-week high.
  • Rates have moved sharply: DGS10 +47 bps and DGS2 +68 bps over 20 days.

Strongest fact against its own case: Semiconductors3-month change

What happened to it

did what it asked The used attempt did what the bull asked (keep the reference); the manager labelled its side “the reference”.

Valid attempts that did what it asked: 3 of 3 · that named it as their side: 0.

  • c1 NDX is in an uptrend, +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200, mom10d +4.7%, dd52 -0.9%…
    • concedes Bear: NDX trend, momentum and vol numbers support the reference; no cut card exists.
    • used Manager, the used attempt: cited the same evidence: Nasdaq-100 · trend
  • c2 SPX uptrend with vol 0.88x median and dd52 -1.1%: no cut evidence, reference 1.0 stands.
    • concedes Bear: SPX uptrend and 0.88x vol are real; reference 1.0 stands.
  • c3 SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are the bear case, but mom10d +9.5% and vol shock…
    • contests Bear: A 10-day bounce does not erase mom63d -9.4% or dd52 -13.5%; 43.5% vol is the book's highest and the shock gauge is a 5-day measure.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
  • c4 GOLD is mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50 and -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x…
    • concedes Bear: GOLD mixed with no cut card: reference 0.75 is honest.
  • c5 Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0: BTC +12.6% over SMA50, ETH +14.8%, both…
    • concedes Bear: Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0; no deviation possible.
  • c6 Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so…
    • concedes Bear: Adds do not clear the cost gate; the reference is the right level, not leverage.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): Correct conclusion, but adds fail the cost gate on cost grounds, not because the trend is weak.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: Correct conclusion, but the gate is not the only reason: no add card exists on any line.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: Conceded by both sides and correct: no add clears the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines.

Bear · answer LLM

Answers the bull's claims one by one, conceding or contesting each, and argues its own case. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
Bear · answer — 1 call

call bear --prompt council-bear/v1

sha b156946ac8ff · 6,034 tokens in · 1,368 out · 4.5 s

ok

1 call · 4.5 s · 6,034 tokens in / 1,368 out

What it saw

Everything the bull saw, plus the bull's opening and its 6 claims, which it must answer one by one.

What it said

Stance: Keep the reference

The bull's own numbers contain the bear case: SEMIS is +26.7% over SMA200 but -9.4% over 63 days with a -13.5% drawdown and 43.5% annualized vol, the widest in the book. A 10-day bounce of +9.5% does not repair a two-month break, and no card exists to cut it, so I concede the reference there. What the bull omits is the macro shock: DGS2 +68bps and DGS10 +47bps in 20 days, VIX 14.21, and a 10y-2y curve compressing -16bps. That is a discount-rate shock hitting the longest-duration equity line hardest, and it is why I would not add anywhere. GOLD is the one line where the band allows a cut: mixe…

Shortened when published: early runs kept only the first 600 characters of each argument; later runs publish it whole.

6 claims

  1. c1 SEMIS carries the book's highest vol (43.5% ann) with mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5%; the 10-day bounce is not a repaired trend.Semiconductorsyearly volatilitySemiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year highSemiconductors10-day change
  2. c2 Rates repriced hard in 20 days: DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps, curve -16bps, a discount-rate shock that pressures long-duration equity.2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 47 bps10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change, 24 Sep: −16 bps
  3. c3 GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, but no volatility or news card exists, so the reference 0.75 stands.GoldtrendGoldvs 50-day averageGoldvs 200-day averageGolddrop from 1-year high
  4. c4 No adds clear the cost gate: 15 bps/side round-trip plus carry against a 0.2-sigma move leaves no room on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility
  5. c5 Crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% show the tail risk is real but untradeable here.Bitcoincost per sideBitcoindrop from 1-year highEtherdrop from 1-year high
  6. c6 OIL overlay is +35.7% over SMA200 but mom10d -3.3% and ret1d +0.96 sigma: a stretched, decelerating line, not an add.Crude oilvs 200-day averageCrude oil10-day changeCrude oillast day's move vs normal

Answers to the bull's claims: concedes 5, contests 1

  • concedes bull's c1 NDX is in an uptrend, +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200, mom10d +4.7%, dd52 -0.9%, vol 0.99x median…
    NDX trend, momentum and vol numbers support the reference; no cut card exists.Nasdaq-100trendNasdaq-100vs 50-day averageNasdaq-100volatility vs its 1-year norm
  • concedes bull's c2 SPX uptrend with vol 0.88x median and dd52 -1.1%: no cut evidence, reference 1.0 stands.
    SPX uptrend and 0.88x vol are real; reference 1.0 stands.S&P 500trendS&P 500volatility vs its 1-year norm
  • contests bull's c3 SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are the bear case, but mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x show the drawdown…
    A 10-day bounce does not erase mom63d -9.4% or dd52 -13.5%; 43.5% vol is the book's highest and the shock gauge is a 5-day measure.Semiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year highSemiconductorsyearly volatilitySemiconductorsvolatility shock
  • concedes bull's c4 GOLD is mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50 and -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: reference 0.75 is the…
    GOLD mixed with no cut card: reference 0.75 is honest.GoldtrendGold3-month change
  • concedes bull's c5 Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0: BTC +12.6% over SMA50, ETH +14.8%, both uptrends, no deviation…
    Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0; no deviation possible.BitcointrendEthertrend
  • concedes bull's c6 Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so the reference is the…
    Adds do not clear the cost gate; the reference is the right level, not leverage.Nasdaq-100cost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

Concedes

  • NDX and SPX uptrends are intact with shallow drawdowns and sub-median vol.
  • SEMIS 10-day momentum is +9.5% and its vol shock is 0.74x, so the near-term tape is improving.
  • Crypto lines are reference-only, so no deviation is possible regardless of view.

Strongest fact against its own case: Nasdaq-100vs 200-day average

What happened to it

did what it asked The used attempt did what the bear asked (keep the reference); the manager labelled its side “the reference”.

Valid attempts that did what it asked: 3 of 3 · that named it as their side: 0.

  • c1 SEMIS carries the book's highest vol (43.5% ann) with mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5%; the…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.
  • c2 Rates repriced hard in 20 days: DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps, curve -16bps, a discount-rate…
    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): the 20-day rate repricing (DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps) is a real discount-rate shock and the best argument against adding risk anywhere.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): A rate shock argues against adds, not for cuts; no cut card exists on any equity line, so it cannot move a level.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend above both averages.
  • c3 GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, but no volatility or news card exists…
    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, and with no card the reference 0.75 is honest.
  • c4 No adds clear the cost gate: 15 bps/side round-trip plus carry against a 0.2-sigma move…
    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): no adds clear the cost gate on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.
  • c5 Crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% show…
    • concedes Bull (rebuttal): crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side, so no deviation is possible regardless of view.
  • c6 OIL overlay is +35.7% over SMA200 but mom10d -3.3% and ret1d +0.96 sigma: a stretched…
    • set aside Manager, attempt 1 (used): OIL is stretched and decelerating, but 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry does not clear the gate; 0.0 stands.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 2: OIL is untradeable anyway: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry cannot clear the cost gate.
    • set aside Manager, attempt 3: OIL is an overlay at ref 0.0; 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry does not clear the gate, so no add.

Bull · rebuttal LLM

Opens the debate with a case for a set of positions, then answers the bear. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
Bull · rebuttal — 1 call

call bull_rebuttal --prompt council-bull_rebuttal/v1

sha 4ff0bba5a215 · 6,871 tokens in · 1,062 out · 3.8 s

ok

1 call · 3.8 s · 6,871 tokens in / 1,062 out

What it saw

Everything above, plus the bear's answer: 6 claims of its own and its verdicts on the bull's claims.

What it said

Stance: Keep the reference

The bear and I now agree on the destination: reference everywhere, no adds. I concede the macro point is real and unanswered by me in my opening: DGS2 +68bps and DGS10 +47bps in 20 days is a genuine discount-rate shock, and it is the best reason not to lever any duration-heavy line. But the bear's own c2 does not license a cut either, and the bear concedes that. On SEMIS I hold my ground: mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x against 1.12x median says the near-term tape is improving, and with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level. GO…

Shortened when published: early runs kept only the first 600 characters of each argument; later runs publish it whole.

6 claims

  1. c1 The rate shock is real but symmetric: it argues against adds, not for cuts, and no cut card exists on any equity line.2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 47 bps10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change, 24 Sep: −16 bpsNasdaq-100trendS&P 500trend
  2. c2 SEMIS: mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x vs 1.12x median shows the near-term tape improving; with no cut card, reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.Semiconductors10-day changeSemiconductorsvolatility shockSemiconductorsvolatility vs its 1-year normSemiconductors3-month changeSemiconductorsdrop from 1-year high
  3. c3 GOLD mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50, -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: no qualifying card, so reference 0.75 stands.GoldtrendGoldvs 50-day averageGoldvs 200-day averageGold3-month changeGoldvolatility shock
  4. c4 OIL is stretched but untradeable: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry against a 0.2-sigma gate, and mom10d -3.3% is decelerating, so 0.0 is correct.Crude oilcost per sideCrude oilovernight costCrude oil10-day changeCrude oilvs 200-day average
  5. c5 Crypto is reference-only at 1.0; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% are real tails but 110 bps/side makes any deviation impossible.Bitcoincost per sideBitcoindrop from 1-year highEtherdrop from 1-year highBitcointrendEthertrend
  6. c6 No adds clear the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines against a 0.2-sigma move; the reference is the right level, not leverage.Nasdaq-100cost per sideS&P 500cost per sideSemiconductorscost per sideNasdaq-100yearly volatility

Concedes

  • bear's c2: the 20-day rate repricing (DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps) is a real discount-rate shock and the best argument against adding risk anywhere.
  • bear's c3: GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, and with no card the reference 0.75 is honest.
  • bear's c4: no adds clear the cost gate on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.
  • bear's c5: crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side, so no deviation is possible regardless of view.

Strongest fact against its own case: 2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps

What happened to it

did what it asked The used attempt did what the bull asked (keep the reference); the manager labelled its side “the reference”.

Valid attempts that did what it asked: 3 of 3 · that named it as their side: 0.

  • c1 The rate shock is real but symmetric: it argues against adds, not for cuts, and no cut…
  • c2 SEMIS: mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x vs 1.12x median shows the near-term tape…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.
  • c3 GOLD mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50, -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: no…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.
  • c4 OIL is stretched but untradeable: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry against a…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.
  • c5 Crypto is reference-only at 1.0; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% are real tails but…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.
  • c6 No adds clear the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines against a 0.2-sigma move; the reference…
    • Not answered, used or set aside by anyone.

Portfolio manager ×3 LLM

Makes three separate attempts at a decision of at most three changes; the most typical one is used. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
Portfolio manager ×3 — 3 calls

call pm --attempt 1 --prompt council-pm/v1

sha 3732a765b3c2 · 8,285 tokens in · 322 out · 1.6 s

ok

call pm --attempt 2 --prompt council-pm/v1

sha 3732a765b3c2 · 8,285 tokens in · 294 out · 1.5 s

ok

call pm --attempt 3 --prompt council-pm/v1

sha 3732a765b3c2 · 8,285 tokens in · 308 out · 1.5 s

ok

3 calls · median 1.5 s · 24,855 tokens in / 924 out

What it saw

The whole debate — the bull's opening, the bear's answer, the bull's rebuttal — the 0 cards and each line's allowed range. Each attempt may change at most 3 lines.

What it said

Valid attempts: 3 of 3. All 3 attempts made the same call: keep every line at the reference.

Attempt 1 USED · MOST TYPICAL

ok 1.6 s 8,285 in / 322 out council-pm/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: Nothing material changed: no qualifying card exists, bands pin the uptrends at 1.0 and the overlays at 0.0, and no add clears the cost gate.
Decisive fact
Every line's band and reference already match the evidence: uptrends at 1.0, GOLD mixed at 0.75, overlays at 0.0, crypto reference-only; no qualifying card exists for any cut. Nasdaq-100trend
Set aside
  • the bear's answer c2 — A rate shock argues against adds, not for cuts; no cut card exists on any equity line, so it cannot move a level.
  • the bull's opening c3 — SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
  • the bear's answer c6 — OIL is stretched and decelerating, but 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry does not clear the gate; 0.0 stands.
  • the bull's opening c6 — Correct conclusion, but adds fail the cost gate on cost grounds, not because the trend is weak.
Attempt 2: same call as attempt 1 (ok · 1.5 s)

Attempt 2

ok 1.5 s 8,285 in / 294 out council-pm/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: Both advocates converged on reference everywhere; no qualifying card, no add clears the cost gate, and the rate shock argues against new risk.
Decisive fact
Every equity line is in an uptrend with sub-median vol and no qualifying card; the rate shock (DGS2 +68bps) argues against adds, not for cuts. 2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps
Set aside
  • the bear's answer c2 — A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend.
  • the bull's opening c3 — SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
  • the bear's answer c6 — OIL is untradeable anyway: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry cannot clear the cost gate.
  • the bull's opening c6 — Correct conclusion, but the gate is not the only reason: no add card exists on any line.
Attempt 3: same call as attempt 1 (ok · 1.5 s)

Attempt 3

ok 1.5 s 8,285 in / 308 out council-pm/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: Both advocates converged on reference everywhere; no qualifying card exists and no add clears the cost gate, so nothing material changed.
Decisive fact
Every equity line is in an uptrend with sub-median vol and no qualifying card; the 20-day rate shock (DGS2 +68bps) argues against adds, not for cuts. 2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change, 23 Sep: 68 bps
Set aside
  • the bear's answer c2 — A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend above both averages.
  • the bull's opening c3 — SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level.
  • the bear's answer c6 — OIL is an overlay at ref 0.0; 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry does not clear the gate, so no add.
  • the bull's opening c6 — Conceded by both sides and correct: no add clears the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines.

What happened to it

The decision that went to the risk engine: hold the reference.

A call is up, hold or down for a line. A line whose used call no other valid attempt shares falls back to the reference.

Single-agent control ×3 LLM

One agent with the same facts, no analysts and no debate, as a comparison; it never trades. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents
Single-agent control ×3 — 3 calls

call single_agent --attempt 1 --prompt council-single_agent/v1

sha a66e23487d21 · 5,002 tokens in · 134 out · 1.0 s

ok

call single_agent --attempt 2 --prompt council-single_agent/v1

sha a66e23487d21 · 5,002 tokens in · 141 out · 1.0 s

ok

call single_agent --attempt 3 --prompt council-single_agent/v1

sha a66e23487d21 · 5,002 tokens in · 145 out · 0.9 s

ok

3 calls · median 1.0 s · 15,006 tokens in / 420 out

What it saw

The same fact pack and the code cards only: no analysts' cards and no debate.

How it compares with the council

Control — one agent, no analysts or debate: held the reference — same as the council. It never trades.

Its 3 attempts (3 valid)

Attempt 1

ok 1.0 s 5,002 in / 134 out council-single_agent/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: No qualifying cards exist; every line's band pins or already matches its reference, and no deviation clears the cost gate with a citable reason.
Decisive fact
All equity lines are in uptrends with bands pinned at ref +1.00 and no qualifying cards; NDX vol 0.99x, SPX 0.88x, SEMIS 1.12x of 1y median. Nasdaq-100trend
Attempt 2: same call as attempt 1 (ok · 1.0 s)

Attempt 2

ok 1.0 s 5,002 in / 141 out council-single_agent/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: No qualifying cards; every line's reference already expresses its trend state. Overlays (OIL, GBPUSD) show negative 10d momentum and carry costs, so no adds are warranted.
Decisive fact
All equity and crypto lines are in uptrends with volatility at or below 1y median (NDX vol_ratio 0.99x, SPX 0.88x); no qualifying card exists to justify any cut. Nasdaq-100volatility vs its 1-year norm
Attempt 3: same call as attempt 1 (ok · 0.9 s)

Attempt 3

ok 0.9 s 5,002 in / 145 out council-single_agent/v1

Sided with
the reference
Changes
keep the reference: All equity lines uptrend with bands pinned at reference and no cards; GOLD mixed ref 0.75 is neutral; overlays ref 0; crypto reference-only. Nothing material changed.
Decisive fact
NDX and SEMIS are in uptrends with bands pinned at ref +1.00 and no qualifying card; SEMIS mom63d -9.4% vs mom10d +9.5% is a bounce, not a cut trigger. Semiconductors3-month change

Auditor and bands CODE

Reverts uncited or contradictory changes, discards broken attempts and clips levels into their range. Its record across runs →

ok

↑ Contents

What it saw

Every manager attempt, the fact pack's ids and each line's allowed range, set by code from its trend.

What it did

No attempt cited missing evidence or broke a rule: nothing reverted.

3 of 9 lines had room to move this run; the others were fixed at the reference.

Allowed range of every line (9)
LineTrendReferenceAllowed sizesWhy
Nasdaq-100 NDXup 1.001.00 to 1.00trend up
Semiconductors SEMISup 1.001.00 to 1.00trend up
S&P 500 SPXup 1.001.00 to 1.00trend up
Gold GOLDmixed 0.750.00 to 1.00trend mixed
Bitcoin BTCup 1.001.00 to 1.00reference-only line
Ether ETHup 1.001.00 to 1.00reference-only line
Crude oil OILup 0.000.00 to 0.50overlay trend up
Euro / US dollar EURUSDdown 0.000.00 to 0.00overlay trend down
Pound / US dollar GBPUSDup 0.000.00 to 0.50overlay trend up

Risk engine CODE

Checks every limit in the risk policy and can hold a change back; it has the final word. Its record across runs →

all checks pass

↑ Contents

What it saw

The council's levels after the auditor, the book the run started from, and every limit in the rules.

What it did

passed 32 of 32 checks

Nothing held back.

Invested
88.7% 0.89x
Net
88.7% 0.89x
Margin use
88.8%
Expected yearly swings
20.0%
Loss if every stop hits
10.6%
Overnight cost/day
0.0 bp (1 bp = 0.01%)
All 32 checks
RuleCheckResultValueLimit
R1Total exposure grossPASS0.88791.9
R2Net exposure netPASS0.8879[-0.50, 1.90]
R2Total short short_grossPASS00.6
R3Kill switch kill_switchPASSNORMALNORMAL
R4Loss if every stop hits catastrophe_stopPASS0.10590.25
R4dCool-off after a stop reentry_cooloffPASS0no increase
R5Largest line vs its cap line_capsPASS0.43751
R5Crypto total crypto_totalPASS0.16350.5
R5Currencies total fx_totalPASS00.5
R5Equity lines together equity_beta_clusterPASS0.63441.6
R6Leverage leveragePASS1leverage_caps by class
R7Margin use margin_usePASS0.88790.95
R8Expected yearly volatility ex_ante_volPASS0.20030.3
R9Volatility breaker vol_breakerPASS0instrument 3.0, book 2.0
R10Council changes allowed authorityPASS03
R11Deadband deadbandPASS0level 0.25/0.5 crypto, 2% NAV
R12Minimum hold min_holdPASS03d/7d crypto
R13Risk added this run cycle_increasePASS00.6
R13Traded in 7 days turnover_7dPASS01
R13Traded in 30 days turnover_30dPASS03
R14Cost this run (bp) cycle_cost_bpsPASS28.847240
R14Cost over 30 days (bp) cost_30d_bpsPASS0100
R14Overnight cost (bp a day) carry_bps_dayPASS02
R15Worth its cost net_of_cost_gatePASS0.1411reference 0.3, council 0.2
R16Event window event_blockPASS0no increase
R17No chasing anti_chasePASS0no chase
R18Data freshness data_freshnessPASS00.3
R18Quote freshness quote_freshnessPASS060
R19Market open market_openPASS00
R20Blockers blockersPASS00
R21Orders in the proposal legsPASS68
MCSomething material changed material_changePASSTruerequired for deviations

Each rule number links to its card on the rules page. Values are as the risk engine computed them (x = a multiple of the portfolio's value; bp = hundredths of a percent). Raw hold notes: no broker snapshot: current book taken as flat

Cost desk and plan CODE

Prices every order (spread, fees, overnight carry) and turns the decision into order legs. Its record across runs →

no orders

↑ Contents

What it saw

The book the run started from, the weights the risk engine allowed and each vehicle's costs.

What it did

No orders this run: a live run would need 6 orders from an empty book (≈0.29% in costs).

Human approval HUMAN

A person approves or rejects every order in a separate operator terminal; nothing trades on its own.

not traded

↑ Contents
NOT TRADED

Rehearsal: no order existed, so no one had to approve anything.

Facts the council saw

This run was published before the facts table was part of the record: evidence is shown by name, without values.

Seal and call log

A hash of this run was published before any order could be approved; this file and the salt that opens the seal came later. verified here

Commitment
7facaec3e096
Sealed at
25 Sep 2026, 15:26 UTC
Verified here
yes
Input hash
343dc7b9df9b
Policy
ab86a8c46ee2
Prompts
695a24bdca9d
Material facts
e108b8db1e4d

Files: cycle · salt. Check: sha256(bytes.fromhex(salt) + cycle file bytes) equals the commitment.

Every model call, in order (11)

AgentStatusWhat it meansTimeTokens in / outPrompt
News analystok—0.5 s4,950 / 6council-news/v1 4c2cb3b72e9b
Macro analystparse failThe reply could not be read as the required JSON, even after a correction turn.4.0 s10,673 / 1,400council-macro/v1 a14f388dfd95
Bull · openingok—3.0 s5,004 / 1,054council-bull_open/v1 c312f8c40adb
Bearok—4.5 s6,034 / 1,368council-bear/v1 b156946ac8ff
Bull · rebuttalok—3.8 s6,871 / 1,062council-bull_rebuttal/v1 4ff0bba5a215
Portfolio manager attempt 1ok—1.6 s8,285 / 322council-pm/v1 3732a765b3c2
Portfolio manager attempt 2ok—1.5 s8,285 / 294council-pm/v1 3732a765b3c2
Portfolio manager attempt 3ok—1.5 s8,285 / 308council-pm/v1 3732a765b3c2
Control attempt 1ok—1.0 s5,002 / 134council-single_agent/v1 a66e23487d21
Control attempt 2ok—1.0 s5,002 / 141council-single_agent/v1 a66e23487d21
Control attempt 3ok—0.9 s5,002 / 145council-single_agent/v1 a66e23487d21

11 calls · total 23.3 s · median 1.5 s · 73,393 tokens in / 6,234 out

Flags: calendar:release_dates_skipped_no_fred_key