{"bands":{"BTC":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"ETH":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"EURUSD":{"hi":0.0,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend down"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"down"},"GBPUSD":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"GOLD":{"hi":1.0,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend mixed"],"ref_level":0.75,"trend":"mixed"},"NDX":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"OIL":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"SEMIS":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"SPX":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"}},"basis":"council","calls":[{"latency_ms":547,"prompt_id":"council-news/v1","prompt_sha":"4c2cb3b72e9b49639ba3a30692a7c0aa78d22baf9a4cac9e3d8d3e00cb925d83","replicate":0,"role":"news","status":"ok","tokens_in":4950,"tokens_out":6},{"latency_ms":3958,"prompt_id":"council-macro/v1","prompt_sha":"a14f388dfd953b90adada9afb2083972823c0af77822f381c45e907f4ae99810","replicate":0,"role":"macro","status":"parse_fail","tokens_in":10673,"tokens_out":1400},{"latency_ms":3005,"prompt_id":"council-bull_open/v1","prompt_sha":"c312f8c40adb47fcb4006234104bb49d319828b9507dd74d94938d04c1ee25c9","replicate":0,"role":"bull_open","status":"ok","tokens_in":5004,"tokens_out":1054},{"latency_ms":4508,"prompt_id":"council-bear/v1","prompt_sha":"b156946ac8ff38634d86077e8a49bb6bebfde6e70a7a4a5a248cea38741fc0eb","replicate":0,"role":"bear","status":"ok","tokens_in":6034,"tokens_out":1368},{"latency_ms":3803,"prompt_id":"council-bull_rebuttal/v1","prompt_sha":"4ff0bba5a21569b3fe3b75b04a29b546d0064f4b7b74bd37341b2c4bd3e16ea1","replicate":0,"role":"bull_rebuttal","status":"ok","tokens_in":6871,"tokens_out":1062},{"latency_ms":1614,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":0,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":8285,"tokens_out":322},{"latency_ms":1451,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":1,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":8285,"tokens_out":294},{"latency_ms":1539,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":2,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":8285,"tokens_out":308},{"latency_ms":986,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":0,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5002,"tokens_out":134},{"latency_ms":967,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":1,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5002,"tokens_out":141},{"latency_ms":937,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":2,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5002,"tokens_out":145}],"cards":[],"cycle_id":"2026-09-25T1440Z","debate":{"bear":{"argument":"The bull's own numbers contain the bear case: SEMIS is +26.7% over SMA200 but -9.4% over 63 days with a -13.5% drawdown and 43.5% annualized vol, the widest in the book. A 10-day bounce of +9.5% does not repair a two-month break, and no card exists to cut it, so I concede the reference there. What the bull omits is the macro shock: DGS2 +68bps and DGS10 +47bps in 20 days, VIX 14.21, and a 10y-2y curve compressing -16bps. That is a discount-rate shock hitting the longest-duration equity line hardest, and it is why I would not add anywhere. GOLD is the one line where the band allows a cut: mixe…","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"SEMIS carries the book's highest vol (43.5% ann) with mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5%; the 10-day bounce is not a repaired trend."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":68.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":47.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-24","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"T10Y2Y","unit":"bps","value":-16.0}],"text":"Rates repriced hard in 20 days: DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps, curve -16bps, a discount-rate shock that pressures long-duration equity."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, but no volatility or news card exists, so the reference 0.75 stands."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SEMIS:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"No adds clear the cost gate: 15 bps/side round-trip plus carry against a 0.2-sigma move leaves no room on NDX, SPX or SEMIS."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% show the tail risk is real but untradeable here."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"F:OIL:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"}],"text":"OIL overlay is +35.7% over SMA200 but mom10d -3.3% and ret1d +0.96 sigma: a stretched, decelerating line, not an add."}],"concessions":["NDX and SPX uptrends are intact with shallow drawdowns and sub-median vol.","SEMIS 10-day momentum is +9.5% and its vol shock is 0.74x, so the near-term tape is improving.","Crypto lines are reference-only, so no deviation is possible regardless of view."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX trend, momentum and vol numbers support the reference; no cut card exists.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SPX uptrend and 0.88x vol are real; reference 1.0 stands.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"A 10-day bounce does not erase mom63d -9.4% or dd52 -13.5%; 43.5% vol is the book's highest and the shock gauge is a 5-day measure.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD mixed with no cut card: reference 0.75 is honest.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:BTC:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0; no deviation possible.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"Adds do not clear the cost gate; the reference is the right level, not leverage.","verdict":"concede"}],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}},"bull":{"argument":"Every equity line is in an uptrend and the reference already holds it at full size: NDX +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200 with mom10d +4.7%, dd52 only -0.9% and vol 0.99x median; SPX +1.0%/+7.4% with vol 0.88x; SEMIS +7.7%/+26.7% with mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x. Nothing in the pack justifies cutting any of them, and the bands allow adds only where the cost gate clears. The strongest bearish fact is SEMIS mom63d -9.4% with dd52 -13.5% and vol 1.12x median, but the 10-day tape is +9.5% and the shock gauge is 0.74x, so the drawdown is being repaired, not extended. GOLD is mixed and s…","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX is in an uptrend, +4.2% over SMA50 and +11.7% over SMA200, mom10d +4.7%, dd52 -0.9%, vol 0.99x median: reference 1.0 is correct."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX uptrend with vol 0.88x median and dd52 -1.1%: no cut evidence, reference 1.0 stands."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are the bear case, but mom10d +9.5% and vol shock 0.74x show the drawdown is repairing, not extending."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"GOLD is mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50 and -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: reference 0.75 is the honest level, no cut card exists."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:BTC:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:BTC:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only and already at 1.0: BTC +12.6% over SMA50, ETH +14.8%, both uptrends, no deviation possible or needed."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SEMIS:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"Adds on 15 bps/side lines do not clear twice their cost against the 0.2-sigma gate, so the reference is the right level, not leverage."}],"concessions":["SEMIS 63-day momentum is negative and its drawdown is the deepest of the equity lines.","GOLD sits below both averages and is 21% off its 52-week high.","Rates have moved sharply: DGS10 +47 bps and DGS2 +68 bps over 20 days."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"}},"rebuttal":{"argument":"The bear and I now agree on the destination: reference everywhere, no adds. I concede the macro point is real and unanswered by me in my opening: DGS2 +68bps and DGS10 +47bps in 20 days is a genuine discount-rate shock, and it is the best reason not to lever any duration-heavy line. But the bear's own c2 does not license a cut either, and the bear concedes that. On SEMIS I hold my ground: mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x against 1.12x median says the near-term tape is improving, and with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level. GO…","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":68.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":47.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-24","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"T10Y2Y","unit":"bps","value":-16.0},{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"The rate shock is real but symmetric: it argues against adds, not for cuts, and no cut card exists on any equity line."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"SEMIS: mom10d +9.5% with vol shock 0.74x vs 1.12x median shows the near-term tape improving; with no cut card, reference 1.0 is the only defensible level."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"GOLD mixed, -0.8% vs SMA50, -5.9% vs SMA200, but mom63d +6.0% and vol 0.69x: no qualifying card, so reference 0.75 stands."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}],"text":"OIL is stretched but untradeable: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry against a 0.2-sigma gate, and mom10d -3.3% is decelerating, so 0.0 is correct."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:BTC:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only at 1.0; BTC dd52 -32.3% and ETH dd52 -42.6% are real tails but 110 bps/side makes any deviation impossible."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SEMIS:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"No adds clear the cost gate on 15 bps/side lines against a 0.2-sigma move; the reference is the right level, not leverage."}],"concessions":["c2: the 20-day rate repricing (DGS2 +68bps, DGS10 +47bps) is a real discount-rate shock and the best argument against adding risk anywhere.","c3: GOLD is the only line whose band permits a cut, and with no card the reference 0.75 is honest.","c4: no adds clear the cost gate on NDX, SPX or SEMIS.","c5: crypto is reference-only and pays 110 bps/side, so no deviation is possible regardless of view."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":68.0}}},"decision":{"approved_slot":null,"human_outcome":"no_action","reason":"","state":"reviewed_no_action"},"flags":["calendar:release_dates_skipped_no_fred_key"],"input_hash":"343dc7b9df9b2b158834b856f894b5c066abb28008fe8775c99da1c61bd0350b","kill_state":"NORMAL","late_by_min":47,"material_fingerprint":"e108b8db1e4dcee0","mode":"rehearsal","model":"deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud","model_digest":"651377bfd3e5e4e7aefe381d2cca7644c0c659d75f821151794b9f7c34d8d534","plan":null,"pm":{"agreement_pct":{"BTC":100.0,"ETH":100.0,"EURUSD":100.0,"GBPUSD":100.0,"GOLD":100.0,"NDX":100.0,"OIL":100.0,"SEMIS":100.0,"SPX":100.0},"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.75,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"medoid":0,"replicates":[{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"Every line's band and reference already match the evidence: uptrends at 1.0, GOLD mixed at 0.75, overlays at 0.0, crypto reference-only; no qualifying card exists for any cut."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c2","why":"A rate shock argues against adds, not for cuts; no cut card exists on any equity line, so it cannot move a level."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c3","why":"SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level."},{"claim_id":"bear:c6","why":"OIL is stretched and decelerating, but 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry does not clear the gate; 0.0 stands."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c6","why":"Correct conclusion, but adds fail the cost gate on cost grounds, not because the trend is weak."}],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.75,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"Nothing material changed: no qualifying card exists, bands pin the uptrends at 1.0 and the overlays at 0.0, and no add clears the cost gate.","replicate":0,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":68.0},"text":"Every equity line is in an uptrend with sub-median vol and no qualifying card; the rate shock (DGS2 +68bps) argues against adds, not for cuts."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c2","why":"A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c3","why":"SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible level."},{"claim_id":"bear:c6","why":"OIL is untradeable anyway: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry cannot clear the cost gate."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c6","why":"Correct conclusion, but the gate is not the only reason: no add card exists on any line."}],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.75,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"Both advocates converged on reference everywhere; no qualifying card, no add clears the cost gate, and the rate shock argues against new risk.","replicate":1,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"as_of":"2026-09-23","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":68.0},"text":"Every equity line is in an uptrend with sub-median vol and no qualifying card; the 20-day rate shock (DGS2 +68bps) argues against adds, not for cuts."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c2","why":"A discount-rate shock licenses no cut: no card exists and every equity line is still in an uptrend above both averages."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c3","why":"SEMIS mom63d -9.4% and dd52 -13.5% are real, but with no cut card the reference 1.0 is the only defensible 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