{"core":{"bands":{"BTC":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"ETH":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"EURUSD":{"hi":0.0,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend down"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"down"},"GBPUSD":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"GOLD":{"hi":0.26,"lo":0.26,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["frozen: hold current"],"ref_level":0.25,"trend":"down"},"NDX":{"hi":1.02,"lo":1.02,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["frozen: hold current"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"OIL":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"SEMIS":{"hi":1.03,"lo":1.03,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["frozen: hold current"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"SPX":{"hi":1.02,"lo":1.02,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["frozen: hold current"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"}},"basis":"council","calls":[{"latency_ms":2602,"prompt_id":"council-news/v2","prompt_sha":"0143d986084bef9a873787f37513a8f91fc3b84d727975b9786cf326aa531438","replicate":0,"role":"news","status":"ok","tokens_in":6452,"tokens_out":825},{"latency_ms":2860,"prompt_id":"council-bull_open/v1","prompt_sha":"c312f8c40adb47fcb4006234104bb49d319828b9507dd74d94938d04c1ee25c9","replicate":0,"role":"bull_open","status":"ok","tokens_in":5720,"tokens_out":1182},{"latency_ms":3862,"prompt_id":"council-bear/v1","prompt_sha":"b156946ac8ff38634d86077e8a49bb6bebfde6e70a7a4a5a248cea38741fc0eb","replicate":0,"role":"bear","status":"ok","tokens_in":6872,"tokens_out":1665},{"latency_ms":3659,"prompt_id":"council-bull_rebuttal/v1","prompt_sha":"4ff0bba5a21569b3fe3b75b04a29b546d0064f4b7b74bd37341b2c4bd3e16ea1","replicate":0,"role":"bull_rebuttal","status":"ok","tokens_in":7993,"tokens_out":1065},{"latency_ms":1901,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":0,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9406,"tokens_out":343},{"latency_ms":1770,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":1,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9406,"tokens_out":361},{"latency_ms":1630,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":2,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9406,"tokens_out":354},{"latency_ms":1174,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":0,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5480,"tokens_out":137},{"latency_ms":1166,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":1,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5480,"tokens_out":135},{"latency_ms":1129,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":2,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5480,"tokens_out":143},{"error_kind":"corrected","latency_ms":5802,"prompt_id":"council-scout/v3","prompt_sha":"2e02a273ce304398b25f0e6e6d2b922318bcef8c2e3533515f11486bfa2631a1","replicate":0,"role":"scout","status":"ok","tokens_in":25804,"tokens_out":2061},{"error_kind":"corrected","latency_ms":4873,"prompt_id":"council-skeptic/v4","prompt_sha":"ef62bb6ea9a83404f05745a087986704e0556a25c73019d30cc8c3feafac5d78","replicate":0,"role":"skeptic","status":"ok","tokens_in":9030,"tokens_out":1385},{"latency_ms":3354,"prompt_id":"council-skeptic/v4","prompt_sha":"ef62bb6ea9a83404f05745a087986704e0556a25c73019d30cc8c3feafac5d78","replicate":0,"role":"skeptic","status":"ok","tokens_in":3805,"tokens_out":866}],"cards":[{"card_id":"K:news:1","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Higher oil is cited as a market headwind, but the item gives no supply or demand shock; oil's 10-day momentum is -3.4%.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"N:dcfadfd2","kind":"broker_feed"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"A concrete supply disruption or OPEC action is reported within the horizon.","horizon_days":5,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["OIL"]},{"card_id":"K:news:2","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Fed speeches on regulation and the dual mandate contain no policy signal; EUR/USD's -2.4 sigma day is the dominant FX fact.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"P:89541043","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:560d07eb","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:983b54b2","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"F:EURUSD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"A speech or Fed communication signals an imminent policy change.","horizon_days":5,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["EURUSD","GBPUSD"]},{"card_id":"K:news:3","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Record US natural gas and propane output is a gas and NGL supply story, not a crude oil supply change for the OIL line.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"P:11f9367c","kind":"public_news","source":"eia"},{"id":"P:f9cbe34b","kind":"public_news","source":"eia"},{"id":"F:OIL:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"Crude-specific supply data show a matching record build.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["OIL"]}],"cycle_id":"2026-10-02T1840Z","debate":{"bear":{"argument":"The bull's own numbers undercut the add. OIL is the only line he would move, yet its 10-day momentum is -3.41% and its 1-day move is +1.00 sigma with 46.7% annualized vol: he is buying a pullback in the most volatile line on the book, paying 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry, on a news card that explicitly says the gas/propane records are not a crude supply story (K:news:3) and that the 'higher oil' headline carries no shock (K:news:1). Everything else is frozen, so the honest bear case is: hold the reference, add nothing. The rate move is not absorbed, it is recent: DGS10 +50 bps in 20 days to 5.29%, DGS2 +49 bps, DFF +25 bps, dollar +1.67% in 20 days. SPX sits only +0.32% over its SMA50 with mom10d +0.43% - the trend is intact but flat, and the 2% hysteresis means a small slip flips it to mixed. GOLD is the real damage: -22.82% off its high, -8.04% below SMA200, mom10d -3.92%.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:OIL:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"},{"id":"K:news:3","kind":"card"},{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"}],"text":"OIL's add case fails on its own evidence: mom10d -3.41%, ret1d_sigma +1.00, sigma_ann 46.67%, and the news cards say the supply headlines are gas/NGL, not crude."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":null,"value":null}],"text":"The rate shock is fresh, not absorbed: DGS10 +50 bps in 20 days to 5.29%, DGS2 +49 bps, DFF +25 bps, and the trade-weighted dollar +1.67% in 20 days."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX is the weakest 'uptrend' on the book: only +0.32% over SMA50, mom10d +0.43%, mom63d +2.83%. With 2% hysteresis, a modest slip flips it to mixed and the reference drops to 0.75."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD is in a confirmed downtrend: -8.04% below SMA200, -3.37% below SMA50, mom10d -3.92%, dd52 -22.82%. The reference 0.25 is already the floor; nothing here argues for more."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:EURUSD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:EURUSD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:EURUSD:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"EURUSD printed a -2.42 sigma day with vol shock 1.54x, the largest single-line shock in the pack; the band pins it at 0.00, which is the correct outcome, not a missed trade."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:BTC:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only at 110 bps/side, and both BTC and ETH have negative 10-day momentum (-2.01%, -2.51%) with dd52 -31.91% and -42.22%; no deviation is available or warranted."}],"concessions":["NDX and SEMIS trends are genuinely strong; I do not argue for cutting them, and they are frozen anyway.","VIX at 16.39 is not a stress reading, so the bull is right that equity vol is calm.","The bull is right to decline GBPUSD: price is below both averages with negative momentum.","BTC and ETH are reference-only, so no bearish deviation is possible there either."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX trend and drawdown numbers support the reference; frozen at +1.02, so hold is correct.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS trend is up and vol shock 0.50x shows no acute stress; I do not contest the hold.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX is up but barely: +0.32% over SMA50 and mom10d +0.43%. 'Defensible' is not the same as strong; the margin to a mixed reading is thin.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:news:3","kind":"card"}],"text":"OIL's trend is up but the entry is not cheap: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry, ret1d_sigma +1.00, and the news cards give no crude supply shock.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":null,"value":null}],"text":"The rate move is 20 days old and still building: DGS10 +50 bps, DGS2 +49 bps, DFF +25 bps, dollar +1.67%. 'Absorbed' is an assertion, not a measurement.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"Agreed: GBPUSD is below both averages with mom63d -0.54%; no add is supported.","verdict":"concede"}],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}},"bull":{"argument":"Every equity line is in an uptrend and the reference already holds it at full size: NDX +3.8% over SMA50 and +11.3% over SMA200 with mom63d +4.2% and dd52 only -0.7%; SEMIS +9.0%/+27.2% with mom10d +11.0%; SPX +0.3%/+6.6% with vol 0.80x of its 1y median. All three are frozen at their current levels, so the honest bull case is simply: hold, pay nothing, and let the trend work. The strongest bearish fact is the 20-day rate move (M:DGS10.chg20 +50 bps to 5.29%), but equities have already absorbed it while sitting within 1.5% of their 52-week highs, and VIX at 16.39 is not a stress reading. The only add I would argue is OIL, where the band opens to +0.50 and the trend is up +30.7% over SMA200; the 10-day -3.4% pullback is the entry, not the thesis. GBPUSD's band also allows an add but its price is below both averages, so I decline it.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX is in an uptrend, +3.77% over SMA50 and +11.32% over SMA200, with mom63d +4.24% and dd52 just -0.73%; the reference level of 1.00 is the right hold."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS trend is up with +9.00% over SMA50 and +27.16% over SMA200; vol shock 0.50x and vol_ratio 0.98x show no stress despite 38.8% annualized vol."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SPX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SPX is up, +6.62% over SMA200, with vol_ratio 0.80x and vol shock 0.57x; the reference 1.00 is defensible and costs nothing to keep."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:OIL:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:OIL:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"OIL is in an uptrend, +9.34% over SMA50 and +30.71% over SMA200, dd52 only -7.32%; the band allows an add to +0.50 and 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry is cheap against a 46.7% annualized sigma."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"The 20-day rise in DGS10 of 50 bps to 5.29% is the main bearish input, yet NDX, SEMIS and SPX all sit within 1.5% of their 52-week highs and VIX is 16.39, so it is absorbed rather than escalating."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"GBPUSD's band permits an add but price is -1.65% below SMA50 and -1.02% below SMA200 with mom63d -0.54%; a long there is not supported, so I propose nothing."}],"concessions":["GOLD is in a downtrend, -8.04% below SMA200 and -22.82% off its 52-week high; I do not defend adding there.","BTC and ETH are reference-only and cost 110 bps/side, so no deviation is possible or desirable.","EURUSD's -2.42 sigma day and 1.54x vol shock are real, but the band pins it at 0.00 anyway.","OIL's 10-day momentum is -3.41%, so any add is a trend-following entry, not a momentum confirmation."],"proposal_levels":{"OIL":0.25},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null}},"rebuttal":{"argument":"The bear's best point is OIL's entry cost, and I take it: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry against ret1d_sigma +1.00 and mom10d -3.41% is not a cheap entry, and K:news:3 confirms the gas/propane records are not a crude supply story. I therefore withdraw the OIL add and move to reference everywhere. But the bear's rate claim is not a measurement of equity damage: DGS10 +50 bps is real, yet NDX dd52 is -0.73%, SEMIS -11.96%, SPX -1.54%, and VIX 16.39 - the shock is in yields, not in equity prices. On SPX the bear is right that the margin is thin, and I concede it; that argues for holding the reference, not for cutting a line that is frozen anyway.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:news:3","kind":"card"}],"text":"I withdraw the OIL add: 18 bps/side plus 0.96 bps/day carry against ret1d_sigma +1.00 and mom10d -3.41% fails the cost gate, and K:news:3 gives no crude supply shock."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"as_of":null,"kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null}],"text":"The rate shock is in yields, not equity prices: DGS10 +50 bps to 5.29%, yet NDX dd52 -0.73%, SEMIS -11.96%, SPX -1.54% and VIX 16.39. That is absorption, measured."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:market_open","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX is the weakest uptrend, as the bear says: +0.32% over SMA50, mom10d +0.43%. But it is frozen at +1.02 and the reference is 1.00, so the correct action is hold, not cut."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX and SEMIS are the strongest lines: +11.32% and +27.16% over SMA200, mom63d +4.24% and +1.83%, vol shock 0.51x and 0.50x. The bear concedes both; nothing to change."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD's downtrend is real and the bear is right that 0.25 is the floor; with the band frozen at +0.26 and no risk_down card, no short is available or argued."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:ETH:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:EURUSD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto and FX offer no deviation: BTC/ETH are reference-only at 110 bps/side, EURUSD is pinned at 0.00 by its band, and GBPUSD is below both averages with mom63d -0.54%."}],"concessions":["c1: OIL's add fails on cost and on the absence of a crude supply shock; I withdraw it.","c3: SPX's margin over SMA50 is thin at +0.32% with mom10d +0.43%; 'defensible' is not 'strong'.","c4: GOLD is in a confirmed downtrend and 0.25 is already the floor.","c6: GBPUSD is below both averages with negative momentum; no add is supported."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"}}},"decision":{"approved_slot":null,"human_outcome":"no_action","reason":"","state":"reviewed_no_action"},"facts":[{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":18.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-0.73},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":11.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day 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Post-earnings drift setups work when the beat is large and volume confirms it; the move is big but the drift window is still open.","ticker":"ACN","time_stop_days":10,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":true,"claim_supports_side":true,"crowding":"high","discounted":"mostly","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["N:0be067eb","N:43174ede"],"text":"Earnings beat is real and new: N:0be067eb reports the FQ4 beat and rally; N:43174ede confirms the pre-open 10/01 release."},{"evidence":["X:ACN:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:ACN:vol_ratio_since","X:ACN:news_age_sessions"],"text":"Move since the news close is [figure withheld] in one session on [figure withheld] volume — a volume climax, not an entry."},{"evidence":["X:ACN:rel_move_since_pct","X:ACN:ndx_move_since_pct","X:ACN:spx_move_since_pct"],"text":"Move is stock-specific: rel_move_since_pct [figure withheld]vs NDX 0.31 and SPX 0.18, so it is not beta and is fully in the price."},{"evidence":["X:ACN:move_today_live_sigma","X:ACN:move_since_news_live_sigma"],"text":"Today the stock is already [value removed] ([value removed]) and live move since news ([value removed]) is far below the close move — the pop is fading."},{"evidence":["X:ACN:fundamentals_age_d","X:ACN:earnings_confirmed","X:ACN:short_interest_pct_float"],"text":"No non-price fact beyond the move: fundamentals 106 days old, earnings not confirmed, short interest [figure withheld] — nothing the move does not contain."}],"ref":"idea:2","regime":"neutral","same_family":false,"verdict":"wait","what_would_change_my_mind":"A pullback that holds the gap and a fresh non-price fact (guidance, contract) not already in the [value removed] move."}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"skeptic_wait","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"skeptic_wait","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (skeptic_wait)"},{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Mattel moved [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] normal volume in the 2026-10-01 session","catalysts":[{"id":"M:MAT:movers","kind":"screen"},{"id":"M:MAT:volume","kind":"screen"}],"drop_code":"no_catalyst_id","facts":{},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:3","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"dropped_by_code","stop_pct":7.0,"target_pct":15.0,"thesis":"An [figure withheld] move on nearly [figure withheld] volume is a genuine repricing event, and the consumer discretionary ETF was flat, so this is name-specific. Large single-name volume spikes often see follow-through over the next sessions as the news is digested.","ticker":"MAT","time_stop_days":8},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"no_catalyst_id","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"no_catalyst_id","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (no_catalyst_id)"}],"inputs":{"carried":[],"context":[],"open_trades":[],"reading":[],"screen":[]},"real_budget_flags":[],"scout_passed":[],"skeptic_model_family":"deepseek","trace_all":false}}