{"core":{"bands":{"BTC":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"ETH":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["reference-only line"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"EURUSD":{"hi":0.0,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend down"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"down"},"GBPUSD":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"GOLD":{"hi":0.25,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend down"],"ref_level":0.25,"trend":"down"},"NDX":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"OIL":{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["overlay trend up"],"ref_level":0.0,"trend":"up"},"SEMIS":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"},"SPX":{"hi":1.0,"lo":1.0,"qualifying_cards":[],"reasons":["trend up"],"ref_level":1.0,"trend":"up"}},"basis":"council","calls":[{"latency_ms":5093,"prompt_id":"council-news/v2","prompt_sha":"0143d986084bef9a873787f37513a8f91fc3b84d727975b9786cf326aa531438","replicate":0,"role":"news","status":"ok","tokens_in":6493,"tokens_out":868},{"latency_ms":2855,"prompt_id":"council-macro/v2","prompt_sha":"d6288b179b4d2234a11e8115201fff56fb21f9b65a414639c9bed43908bf671c","replicate":0,"role":"macro","status":"ok","tokens_in":5423,"tokens_out":762},{"latency_ms":7725,"prompt_id":"council-bull_open/v1","prompt_sha":"c312f8c40adb47fcb4006234104bb49d319828b9507dd74d94938d04c1ee25c9","replicate":0,"role":"bull_open","status":"ok","tokens_in":5849,"tokens_out":1150},{"latency_ms":7099,"prompt_id":"council-bear/v1","prompt_sha":"b156946ac8ff38634d86077e8a49bb6bebfde6e70a7a4a5a248cea38741fc0eb","replicate":0,"role":"bear","status":"ok","tokens_in":6978,"tokens_out":1445},{"latency_ms":5829,"prompt_id":"council-bull_rebuttal/v1","prompt_sha":"4ff0bba5a21569b3fe3b75b04a29b546d0064f4b7b74bd37341b2c4bd3e16ea1","replicate":0,"role":"bull_rebuttal","status":"ok","tokens_in":7885,"tokens_out":1010},{"latency_ms":2819,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":0,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9259,"tokens_out":489},{"latency_ms":3563,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":1,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9259,"tokens_out":489},{"latency_ms":3418,"prompt_id":"council-pm/v1","prompt_sha":"3732a765b3c2586616786c12f7e20b9604e8d49e6afaa9c9fb4e0410894701e7","replicate":2,"role":"pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":9259,"tokens_out":444},{"latency_ms":1715,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":0,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5418,"tokens_out":136},{"latency_ms":1467,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":1,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":5418,"tokens_out":149},{"error_kind":"corrected","latency_ms":4461,"prompt_id":"council-single_agent/v1","prompt_sha":"a66e23487d2151162636366bad2050e6f2a0d80018ca32781a852ff4dff225c9","replicate":2,"role":"single_agent","status":"ok","tokens_in":11068,"tokens_out":318},{"latency_ms":4876,"prompt_id":"council-scout/v3","prompt_sha":"2e02a273ce304398b25f0e6e6d2b922318bcef8c2e3533515f11486bfa2631a1","replicate":0,"role":"scout","status":"ok","tokens_in":12104,"tokens_out":847},{"latency_ms":5857,"prompt_id":"council-skeptic/v4","prompt_sha":"ef62bb6ea9a83404f05745a087986704e0556a25c73019d30cc8c3feafac5d78","replicate":0,"role":"skeptic","status":"ok","tokens_in":4028,"tokens_out":859},{"latency_ms":6024,"prompt_id":"council-skeptic/v4","prompt_sha":"ef62bb6ea9a83404f05745a087986704e0556a25c73019d30cc8c3feafac5d78","replicate":0,"role":"skeptic","status":"ok","tokens_in":3935,"tokens_out":806},{"error_kind":"schema","latency_ms":11602,"prompt_id":"council-swing_bull/v1","prompt_sha":"407e5420ec7562554783ec1a5bf6ab995d135db1b7f3346a7691e2e5b8b1c13c","replicate":0,"role":"swing_bull","status":"parse_fail","tokens_in":11760,"tokens_out":2177},{"error_kind":"corrected","latency_ms":11154,"prompt_id":"council-swing_bear/v1","prompt_sha":"8cb26d335f000e67a68f018f705ef8925455b6faf10e62eadece45f7972fbfc5","replicate":0,"role":"swing_bear","status":"ok","tokens_in":12809,"tokens_out":3466},{"latency_ms":2193,"prompt_id":"council-swing_pm/v3","prompt_sha":"77f23919bc6411d39c221f88c9ff9bda4682bf197b6feebd2fe55366a7dec636","replicate":0,"role":"swing_pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":7497,"tokens_out":778},{"latency_ms":3309,"prompt_id":"council-swing_pm/v3","prompt_sha":"77f23919bc6411d39c221f88c9ff9bda4682bf197b6feebd2fe55366a7dec636","replicate":1,"role":"swing_pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":7497,"tokens_out":686},{"latency_ms":1937,"prompt_id":"council-swing_pm/v3","prompt_sha":"77f23919bc6411d39c221f88c9ff9bda4682bf197b6feebd2fe55366a7dec636","replicate":2,"role":"swing_pm","status":"ok","tokens_in":7497,"tokens_out":707}],"cards":[{"card_id":"K:news:1","card_type":"news_material","claim":"September payrolls and unemployment (4.2%) changed little, while DGS10 rose 50 bps in 20 days to 5.29%, a rate shock that pressures long-duration equity multiples.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"risk_down","evidence":[{"id":"P:3a5df3ba","kind":"public_news","source":"bls"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"pct","value":5.29},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":"bps","value":25.0}],"falsifier":"DGS10 falls back below 5% or payrolls surprise materially higher within 20 days.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["NDX","SEMIS","SPX"]},{"card_id":"K:news:2","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Fed speeches by Bowman, Jefferson, Waller and Cook contain no policy action; no scheduled binary event is imminent in the pack.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"P:89541043","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:560d07eb","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:fae633d5","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:983b54b2","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"}],"falsifier":"A speech signals an imminent policy change or a scheduled event appears.","horizon_days":5,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["SPX","NDX"]},{"card_id":"K:macro:1","card_type":"macro_context","claim":"US 2y +49bps and DFF +25bps with a +1.67% dollar index keep both FX pairs capped; EURUSD already -2.4% vs its 50-day.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"risk_down","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":49.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":"bps","value":25.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-25","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":"pct","value":1.666},{"id":"F:EURUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"Dollar index falls more than 1% over 20 days or 2y yield drops 25bps.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"macro","scope":["EURUSD","GBPUSD"]},{"card_id":"K:macro:2","card_type":"macro_context","claim":"Rates up 50bps in 20 days yet VIX 16.4 and equity lines hold uptrends: macro is a headwind, not yet a break.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"VIX closes above 22 or SPX loses its 200-day average.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"macro","scope":["NDX","SPX","SEMIS"]}],"cycle_id":"2026-10-02T1440Z","debate":{"bear":{"argument":"The bull's own numbers show the equity lines are pinned by their bands, so the only live question is whether any line can be cut. GOLD is the one: trend down, -3.4% below its 50-day, -8.0% below its 200-day, -22.8% off its 52-week high, 10-day momentum -3.9%, and the band allows a cut to 0.00. The bull concedes GOLD but proposes nothing, leaving a quarter-unit of a broken downtrend on the book. The rate shock (DGS10 +50bps to 5.29%) is a real multiple headwind, and SPX at +0.3% over its 50-day with +0.4% momentum is one bad session from mixed. I do not short: no risk_down card qualifies a short on any line, and carry is unbounded. I cut GOLD to flat and hold everything else at reference.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD is in a confirmed downtrend: -3.4% below its 50-day, -8.0% below its 200-day, -22.8% off its 52-week high, 10-day momentum -3.9%."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD's band is [+0.00, +0.25] and allows a cut; the reference is +0.25, so a cut to flat is inside the band and needs no card beyond the trend."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"pct","value":5.29},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":"bps","value":25.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":49.0}],"text":"The rate shock is material: DGS10 +50bps in 20 days to 5.29%, DFF +25bps, DGS2 +49bps, a headwind to long-duration equity multiples."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX is the soft equity line: only +0.3% over its 50-day, 10-day momentum +0.4%, and its band pins it at +1.00, so no cut is available even if warranted."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"id":"K:macro:1","kind":"card"}],"text":"No risk_down card in the pack qualifies a short on any line; shorts pay carry and carry unbounded upside risk, so I propose none."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"V:EURUSD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:EURUSD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market"},{"as_of":"2026-09-25","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":"pct","value":1.666},{"id":"F:EURUSD:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"EURUSD vol shock is 1.55x with a -2.42 sigma daily move and the dollar index +1.67%; the band pins it at 0.00, so the FX overlay is already flat."}],"concessions":["NDX and SEMIS trends are intact and their bands pin them at reference; I do not fight that.","The bull is right that OIL and GBPUSD adds fail the cost gate.","BTC and ETH are reference-only and pay 110bps a side; no deviation is available.","The rate shock is a headwind, not yet a break, as K:macro:2 says."],"proposal_levels":{"GOLD":0.0},"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX trend and momentum numbers support the reference; the band pins it anyway.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX vol is below normal at 0.88x median and shock 0.51x; no vol card qualifies a cut there.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"SEMIS is the strongest trend in the book; I do not dispute the numbers, and its band pins it.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"VIX 16.4 does not neutralize a 50bp rate rise; K:news:1 is a risk_down card, and SPX at +0.3% over its 50-day is fragile.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"OIL add does fail the cost gate; 18bps a side plus 0.96bps/day carry against -3.4% 10-day momentum.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GBPUSD is below both averages with negative momentum; a long there is not evidence-based.","verdict":"concede"}],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"}},"bull":{"argument":"The trend engine already holds the three equity lines at full size and the bands pin them there, so the honest bull case is defence, not adds. NDX sits +3.8% over its 50-day and +11.3% over its 200-day, only -0.7% off its 52-week high, with 10-day momentum +3.6% and volatility at 0.88x its one-year median (V:NDX:vol_ratio) and shock at 0.51x. SEMIS is +9.0%/+27.2% with 10-day momentum +11.0% and shock 0.50x. SPX is the soft one: +0.3% over its 50-day, momentum +0.4%, but still +6.6% over its 200-day and vol 0.80x. The strongest bearish fact is the 50bp rise in DGS10 to 5.29% (K:news:1), a real multiple headwind; it is survivable because VIX is only 16.4 and all three trends are intact (K:macro:2), and it is a reason to hold, not to pay 15bps a side to cut a pinned band. No adds are available on the equity lines, and the overlay adds (OIL, GBPUSD) fail the cost gate: OIL pays 18bps a side plus 0.96bps/day carry against a 10-day momentum of -3.4%, and GBPUSD is below both averages with negative momentum, so a long there is a positive-tape fantasy, not evidence.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX is in an uptrend, +3.8% over its 50-day and +11.3% over its 200-day, only -0.7% off its 52-week high, with 10-day momentum +3.6%."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX volatility is below normal: 0.88x its one-year median and shock 0.51x, so the trend signal is not being carried by a vol spike."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS is the strongest trend in the book: +9.0% over its 50-day, +27.2% over its 200-day, 10-day momentum +11.0%, shock 0.50x."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"pct","value":5.29},{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"}],"text":"The rate shock is a headwind, not a break: DGS10 +50bps in 20 days to 5.29% but VIX 16.4 and all equity lines still in uptrends."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:OIL:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"OIL add fails the cost gate: 18bps a side plus 0.96bps/day carry against 10-day momentum of -3.4%, even though the 63-day trend is +44.3%."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GBPUSD is labelled uptrend but sits -1.6% below its 50-day and -1.0% below its 200-day with negative 10- and 63-day momentum; a long there is not evidence-based."}],"concessions":["SPX is the weakest equity line: only +0.3% over its 50-day and 10-day momentum +0.4%.","GOLD is in a downtrend, -3.4% below its 50-day and -22.8% off its 52-week high; I do not defend a long there.","BTC and ETH are reference-only and pay 110bps a side, so no deviation is available or worth arguing for.","The rate shock is a genuine headwind to long-duration multiples."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"}},"rebuttal":{"argument":"The bear's GOLD case is the one live move and the numbers support it: trend down, -3.4% below the 50-day, -8.0% below the 200-day, -22.8% off the 52-week high, 10-day momentum -3.9%, and the band [+0.00, +0.25] permits a cut (F:GOLD:trend, F:GOLD:dist_sma50, F:GOLD:dist_sma200, F:GOLD:dd52, F:GOLD:mom10d). I revise to GOLD +0.00. I refute the bear's c4: SPX is not one bad session from mixed, because the 2% hysteresis band means a line only counts as crossed once price is more than 2% beyond an average, and SPX is +6.6% above its 200-day with vol 0.80x median and shock 0.57x (F:SPX:dist_sma200, V:SPX:vol_ratio, V:SPX:ewma5_60). I also refute the bear's c3 framing: K:news:1 is a 20-day horizon headwind, and K:macro:2 says macro is not yet a break, with VIX 16.4 and all equity trends intact. The bear's c5 and c6 I accept; no shorts, no adds.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD cut to flat is inside the band [+0.00, +0.25] and justified by trend down, -3.4% vs 50-day, -8.0% vs 200-day, -22.8% off high, mom10d -3.9%."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"SPX is not one bad session from mixed: the 2% hysteresis band requires price more than 2% beyond an average to cross, and SPX is +6.6% above its 200-day."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SPX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SPX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SPX volatility is below normal at 0.80x its one-year median and shock 0.57x, so the soft 50-day distance is not a vol-driven break."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"The rate shock is a 20-day headwind, not a break: K:macro:2 says rates up 50bps yet VIX 16.4 and equity lines hold uptrends."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX and SEMIS remain pinned at reference by their bands; no cut is available and no vol card qualifies one."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"id":"K:macro:1","kind":"card"}],"text":"No risk_down card qualifies a short on any line, and shorts pay unbounded carry; I propose none."}],"concessions":["c1: GOLD is a confirmed downtrend and the band allows a cut to flat; I revise to GOLD +0.00.","c3: the rate shock is material, DGS10 +50bps to 5.29% with DFF +25bps and DGS2 +49bps.","c5: no risk_down card qualifies a short on any line, so I propose none.","c6: EURUSD is pinned at 0.00 by its band with vol shock 1.55x and a -2.42 sigma daily move."],"proposal_levels":{"GOLD":0.0},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"}}},"decision":{"approved_slot":null,"human_outcome":"no_action","reason":"","state":"reviewed_no_action"},"facts":[{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-0.73},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":11.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":3.77},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:NDX:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"NDX","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":3.61},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":4.24},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":0.3},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.506},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":16.08},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.883},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:NDX:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"NDX","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"NDX","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":15.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-11.96},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":27.16},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":9.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"SEMIS","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":11.03},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":1.83},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":0.55},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.497},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":38.8},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SEMIS:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"SEMIS","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.981},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:SEMIS:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"SEMIS","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:SEMIS:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"SEMIS","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":15.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.54},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":6.62},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":0.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:SPX:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"SPX","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":0.43},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":2.83},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":0.28},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SPX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.573},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SPX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":10.01},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"SPX","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.803},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:SPX:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"SPX","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"SPX","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":15.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-22.82},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-8.04},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-3.37},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"GOLD","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-3.92},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":1.22},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":0.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"down"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.931},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GOLD:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":24.6},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GOLD:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"GOLD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.946},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:GOLD:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"GOLD","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:GOLD:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"GOLD","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":15.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":-31.91},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":18.95},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":9.21},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:BTC:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"BTC","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":-2.01},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":31.03},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"sigma","value":0.73},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:BTC:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:BTC:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"ratio","value":0.533},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:BTC:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":39.2},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:BTC:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"BTC","source":"binance","unit":"ratio","value":0.943},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:BTC:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"BTC","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"BTC","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":110.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":-42.22},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":28.06},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":10.34},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:ETH:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"ETH","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":-2.51},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":41.08},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"sigma","value":0.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:ETH:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:ETH:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"ratio","value":0.285},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:ETH:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"pct","value":45.38},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:ETH:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"ETH","source":"binance","unit":"ratio","value":0.75},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:ETH:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"ETH","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:ETH:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"ETH","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":110.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-7.32},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":30.71},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":9.34},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:OIL:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"OIL","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-3.41},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":44.28},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":1.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:OIL:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:OIL:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.941},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:OIL:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":46.67},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:OIL:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"OIL","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.987},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:OIL:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"OIL","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.96},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:OIL:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"OIL","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":18.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-6.12},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-2.94},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-2.4},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"EURUSD","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-2.04},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.48},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":-2.42},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:EURUSD:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"down"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:EURUSD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":1.545},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:EURUSD:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":5.06},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:EURUSD:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"EURUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.984},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:EURUSD:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"EURUSD","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.96},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:EURUSD:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"EURUSD","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":13.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-3.23},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.02},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day average","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.65},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:market_open","kind":"market","label":"market open or closed","line":"GBPUSD","source":"clock","unit":"state","value":true},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:mom10d","kind":"market","label":"10-day change","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.08},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:mom63d","kind":"market","label":"3-month change","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-0.54},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:ret1d_sigma","kind":"market","label":"last day's move vs normal","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"sigma","value":-1.47},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"F:GBPUSD:trend","kind":"market","label":"trend","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"state","value":"up"},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GBPUSD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol","label":"volatility shock","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":1.034},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GBPUSD:sigma_ann","kind":"vol","label":"yearly volatility","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":4.95},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","id":"V:GBPUSD:vol_ratio","kind":"vol","label":"volatility vs its 1-year norm","line":"GBPUSD","source":"tiingo","unit":"ratio","value":0.815},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:GBPUSD:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost","label":"overnight cost","line":"GBPUSD","source":"policy","unit":"bps_day","value":0.96},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","id":"C:GBPUSD:per_side_bps","kind":"cost","label":"cost per side","line":"GBPUSD","source":"policy","unit":"bps","value":13.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DFF.chg20@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"Fed funds rate · 20-day change","source":"fred","unit":"bps","value":25.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DFF@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"Fed funds rate","source":"fred","unit":"pct","value":3.88},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DGS10.chg20@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"10-year Treasury yield · 20-day change","source":"fred","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DGS10@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"10-year Treasury yield","source":"fred","unit":"pct","value":5.29},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DGS2.chg20@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"2-year Treasury yield · 20-day change","source":"fred","unit":"bps","value":49.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DGS2@2026-09-30","kind":"macro","label":"2-year Treasury yield","source":"fred","unit":"pct","value":4.88},{"as_of":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","id":"M:DTWEXBGS.chg20@2026-09-25","kind":"macro","label":"broad US dollar index · 20-day change","source":"fred","unit":"pct","value":1.67},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T12:00:00Z","id":"M:T10Y2Y.chg20@2026-10-01","kind":"macro","label":"10y–2y yield curve · 20-day change","source":"fred","unit":"bps","value":6.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T12:00:00Z","id":"M:T10Y2Y@2026-10-01","kind":"macro","label":"10y–2y yield curve","source":"fred","unit":"pct","value":0.46},{"as_of":"2026-10-02T12:00:00Z","id":"M:VIXCLS@2026-10-01","kind":"macro","label":"VIX","source":"fred","unit":"pct","withheld":"licensed_series"},{"id":"N:181f0e55","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"N:6bf6bf26","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"N:a6eb4ed2","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"N:aa18eeed","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"N:c420d886","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"N:ff0791bc","kind":"news","label":"licensed RSS headline","source":"rss"},{"id":"P:11f9367c","kind":"news","label":"EIA release","source":"eia"},{"id":"P:1e903ac7","kind":"news","label":"U.S. Treasury release","source":"treasury"},{"id":"P:3a5df3ba","kind":"news","label":"BLS release","source":"bls"},{"id":"P:560d07eb","kind":"news","label":"Federal Reserve Board release","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:89541043","kind":"news","label":"Federal Reserve Board release","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:983b54b2","kind":"news","label":"Federal Reserve Board release","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:a293965f","kind":"news","label":"U.S. Treasury release","source":"treasury"},{"id":"P:f9cbe34b","kind":"news","label":"EIA release","source":"eia"},{"id":"P:fae633d5","kind":"news","label":"Federal Reserve Board release","source":"fed_board"}],"flags":["paper_book","initial_build","calendar:release_dates_skipped_no_fred_key","mirror_ratio_missing","screen_names_missing","skeptic_same_model","swing_ai_list_absent","news_source_backoff:rss:yahoo_ticker","swing_eligibility_unverified","swing_reaction_delayed_alpaca","paper_reference_last_close","paper_book_filled:0+0"],"input_hash":"b102996f7a33f2e12729958b0c1ab28b6de5878744ce86580675f037db501d34","kill_state":"NORMAL","late_by_min":28,"macro":{"cards":["K:macro:1","K:macro:2"],"drivers":[{"evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":49.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":50.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":"bps","value":25.0}],"text":"Front-end rates repriced hard: 2y +49bps and 10y +50bps over 20 days, with DFF +25bps, so policy is tightening into an equity uptrend."},{"evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"T10Y2Y","unit":"bps","value":6.0},{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":true,"series":"T10Y2Y","unit":"pct","value":0.46},{"as_of":"2026-10-01","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null}],"text":"Curve barely steepened (10y-2y +6bps to +0.46%) while VIX sits at 16.4: no growth scare priced, but no easing either."},{"evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-25","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":"pct","value":1.666},{"id":"F:EURUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"text":"Dollar index +1.67% over 20 days lines up with EURUSD -2.4% vs SMA50 and GBPUSD below both averages despite its 'up' tag."},{"evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"text":"Equity uptrends are intact but narrow: SEMIS +9.0% vs SMA50 and NDX +3.8%, while SPX is only +0.3% above its 50-day."}],"regime":"neutral","sleeve_tilts":{"core":0,"crypto":0,"overlay":0}},"material_fingerprint":"9020e1c8538cec53","mode":"rehearsal","model":"deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud","model_digest":"a3189a9a94654904fc8ef87bd7acb56f276816c009cadd13ad38fe2504367837","plan":null,"pm":{"agreement_pct":{"BTC":100.0,"ETH":100.0,"EURUSD":100.0,"GBPUSD":100.0,"GOLD":100.0,"NDX":100.0,"OIL":100.0,"SEMIS":100.0,"SPX":100.0},"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"medoid":0,"replicates":[{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"Gold is the only line with a live, band-permitted move: trend down, -3.4% below its 50-day and -8.0% below its 200-day, with 10-day momentum -3.9%."},"deviations":[{"direction":"cut","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"level":0.0,"line":"GOLD","reason":"Confirmed downtrend: -3.4% vs 50-day, -8.0% vs 200-day, -22.8% off high, mom10d -3.9%; band [+0.00,+0.25] permits the cut."}],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c4","why":"SPX is +6.6% above its 200-day with vol 0.80x median; the 2% hysteresis means it is not one session from mixed."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c4","why":"K:news:1 is a real 20-day headwind, but it is a hold argument, not a cut: no equity band permits a move."},{"claim_id":"bear:c3","why":"The rate shock is material but K:macro:2 shows VIX 16.4 and intact equity trends; it justifies no equity deviation."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c5","why":"Conceded by both sides: OIL add pays 18bps/side plus 0.96bps/day carry against -3.4% 10-day momentum."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c6","why":"Conceded: GBPUSD is below both averages with negative momentum; no evidence supports an add."},{"claim_id":"bear:c5","why":"Agreed: no risk_down card qualifies a short, and carry is unbounded; no shorts proposed."}],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"","replicate":0,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"bear","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"Gold is the only line with a live, band-permitted deviation: trend down, -3.4% below its 50-day and -8.0% below its 200-day with 10-day momentum -3.9%."},"deviations":[{"direction":"cut","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"level":0.0,"line":"GOLD","reason":"Confirmed downtrend: -3.4% vs 50-day, -8.0% vs 200-day, -22.8% off high, mom10d -3.9%; band [+0.00,+0.25] permits the cut and 15bps/side is cheap."}],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c3","why":"K:news:1 is a 20-day headwind, not a break; K:macro:2 notes VIX 16.4 and intact equity uptrends, and equity bands pin the levels anyway."},{"claim_id":"bear:c4","why":"SPX is +6.6% above its 200-day with vol 0.80x median and shock 0.57x; the 2% hysteresis means it is not near mixed, and its band pins it."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c5","why":"Conceded by both sides: OIL add pays 18bps/side plus 0.96bps/day carry against -3.4% 10-day momentum, failing the cost gate."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c6","why":"Conceded: GBPUSD is below both averages with negative 10- and 63-day momentum; no evidence supports an add."},{"claim_id":"bear:c5","why":"No risk_down card qualifies a short on any line, and shorts pay unbounded carry; no short is proposed."}],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"","replicate":1,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"bear","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"Gold is the only line with a live, band-permitted deviation: trend down, -3.4% below its 50-day and -8.0% below its 200-day with 10-day momentum -3.9%."},"deviations":[{"direction":"cut","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"}],"level":0.0,"line":"GOLD","reason":"Confirmed downtrend: -3.4% vs 50-day, -8.0% vs 200-day, -22.8% off high, mom10d -3.9%; band [+0.00,+0.25] permits the cut."}],"dismissed":[{"claim_id":"bear:c4","why":"SPX is +6.6% above its 200-day with vol 0.80x median; the 2% hysteresis means it is not one session from mixed."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c4","why":"Conceded by both sides: K:news:1 is a 20-day headwind, not a break; VIX 16.4 and trends intact."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c5","why":"Agreed: OIL add fails the cost gate, 18bps/side plus 0.96bps/day carry against -3.4% mom10d."},{"claim_id":"bull_open:c6","why":"Agreed: GBPUSD is below both averages with negative momentum; no evidence for a long."},{"claim_id":"bear:c5","why":"Agreed: no risk_down card qualifies a short on any line; carry is unbounded."}],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"","replicate":2,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"bear","valid":true,"violations":[]}],"valid_replicates":3},"policy_sha":"3f104057c668b115b5d39edce63403f9d3d53fa17aec22e9c221ba6f074b6d3d","prompt_manifest_sha":"dc81e096b158c0041d34905f36c602eede7d98fb1bc6c5f1f121452875fa3f34","reference":{"BTC":{"day_change_pct":1.5,"level_ref":1.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.13},"ETH":{"day_change_pct":0.76,"level_ref":1.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.05},"EURUSD":{"day_change_pct":-0.77,"level_ref":0.0,"trend":"down","weight_ref_x":0.0},"GBPUSD":{"day_change_pct":-0.46,"level_ref":0.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.0},"GOLD":{"day_change_pct":0.5,"level_ref":0.25,"trend":"down","weight_ref_x":0.03},"NDX":{"day_change_pct":0.31,"level_ref":1.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.35},"OIL":{"day_change_pct":2.99,"level_ref":0.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.0},"SEMIS":{"day_change_pct":1.35,"level_ref":1.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.15},"SPX":{"day_change_pct":0.18,"level_ref":1.0,"trend":"up","weight_ref_x":0.15}},"risk":{"banded_levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"banded_x":{"BTC":0.13,"ETH":0.05,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":0.35,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":0.15,"SPX":0.15},"base_x":{"BTC":0.135,"ETH":0.051,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.031,"NDX":0.358,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":0.155,"SPX":0.153},"carry_bp_day":2.0,"checks":[{"kind":"policy","limit":1.9,"name":"gross","passed":true,"rule_id":"R1","value":0.8824},{"kind":"policy","limit":"[-0.50, 1.90]","name":"net","passed":true,"rule_id":"R2","value":0.8824},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.6,"name":"short_gross","passed":true,"rule_id":"R2","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"NORMAL","name":"kill_switch","passed":true,"rule_id":"R3","value":"NORMAL"},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.25,"name":"catastrophe_stop","passed":true,"rule_id":"R4","value":0.1066},{"kind":"policy","limit":"no increase","name":"reentry_cooloff","passed":true,"rule_id":"R4d","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":1.0,"name":"line_caps","passed":true,"rule_id":"R5","value":0.4474},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.5,"name":"crypto_total","passed":true,"rule_id":"R5","value":0.1859},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.5,"name":"fx_total","passed":true,"rule_id":"R5","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":1.6,"name":"equity_beta_cluster","passed":true,"rule_id":"R5","value":0.6658},{"kind":"policy","limit":"leverage_caps by class","name":"leverage","passed":true,"rule_id":"R6","value":2.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.95,"name":"margin_use","passed":true,"rule_id":"R7","value":0.4566},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.3,"name":"ex_ante_vol","passed":true,"rule_id":"R8","value":0.2},{"kind":"policy","limit":"instrument 3.0, book 2.0","name":"vol_breaker","passed":true,"rule_id":"R9","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":3.0,"name":"authority","passed":true,"rule_id":"R10","value":1.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"level 0.25/0.5 crypto, 2% NAV","name":"deadband","passed":true,"rule_id":"R11","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"3d/7d crypto","name":"min_hold","passed":true,"rule_id":"R12","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.6,"name":"cycle_increase","passed":true,"rule_id":"R13","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":1.0,"name":"turnover_7d","passed":true,"rule_id":"R13","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":3.0,"name":"turnover_30d","passed":true,"rule_id":"R13","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":40.0,"name":"cycle_cost_bps","passed":true,"rule_id":"R14","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":100.0,"name":"cost_30d_bps","passed":true,"rule_id":"R14","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":2.0,"name":"carry_bps_day","passed":true,"rule_id":"R14","value":1.9517},{"kind":"policy","limit":"reference 0.3, council 0.2","name":"net_of_cost_gate","passed":true,"rule_id":"R15","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"no increase","name":"event_block","passed":true,"rule_id":"R16","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"no chase","name":"anti_chase","passed":true,"rule_id":"R17","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.3,"name":"data_freshness","passed":true,"rule_id":"R18","value":0.0},{"kind":"execution","limit":60.0,"name":"quote_freshness","passed":true,"rule_id":"R18","value":0.0},{"kind":"execution","limit":0.0,"name":"market_open","passed":true,"rule_id":"R19","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":0.0,"name":"blockers","passed":true,"rule_id":"R20","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":8.0,"name":"legs","passed":true,"rule_id":"R21","value":0.0},{"kind":"policy","limit":"required for deviations","name":"material_change","passed":true,"rule_id":"MC","value":"True"}],"compliance":[],"ex_ante_vol_pct":20.0,"final_x":{"BTC":0.135,"ETH":0.051,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.031,"NDX":0.358,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":0.155,"SPX":0.153},"gross_x":0.882,"hold_reasons":["NDX: R11","SEMIS: R11","SPX: R11","GOLD: R15 SR_be 0.22 above 0.20","BTC: R11","ETH: R11"],"margin_use_pct":45.66,"net_x":0.882,"proposed_x":{"BTC":0.13,"ETH":0.05,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":0.35,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":0.15,"SPX":0.15},"raw_levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"raw_x":{"BTC":0.13,"ETH":0.05,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.0,"NDX":0.35,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":0.15,"SPX":0.15},"stop_at_risk_pct":10.66},"schema_id":"council-book/cycle/v1","single_agent":{"agreement_pct":{},"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"medoid":null,"replicates":[{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"Every equity and crypto line is in an uptrend with bands pinned at the reference; GOLD is the only line with a cut option but its -3.4% vs SMA50 and -3.9% mom10d are already expressed by ref +0.25."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"No qualifying card exists; all bands pin the reference or offer no cost-justified deviation. Holding the mechanical reference is the correct action.","replicate":0,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},"text":"Every equity and crypto line is in an uptrend with volatility at or below its one-year median (NDX 0.88x, SPX 0.80x, SEMIS 0.98x); no qualifying card exists to justify a cut."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"No qualifying cards; bands pin NDX/SEMIS/SPX/BTC/ETH/EURUSD, and GOLD/OIL/GBPUSD deviations fail the cost gate against their small expected moves.","replicate":1,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"All equity and crypto lines are in uptrends with bands pinned at reference; GOLD is the only cut direction open, but its -3.4% vs SMA50 and -3.9% mom10d are already expressed by ref +0.25."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"No qualifying card exists; bands pin NDX, SEMIS, SPX, BTC, ETH, EURUSD, and GOLD's downtrend is already at ref +0.25. OIL and GBPUSD adds fail the cost gate on carry.","replicate":2,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]}],"valid_replicates":3},"slot":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","split":{"budget_fallback":false,"core_pct":100.0,"swing_budget_pct":20.0,"swing_pct":0.0},"status":"late","think":false,"why_we_met":[]},"cycle_id":"2026-10-02T1440Z","decision_no":3,"flags":[],"paper":true,"schema_id":"council-book/paper-cycle/v1","slot":"2026-10-02T14:40:00Z","swing":{"batches":[{"bear":{"argument":"Both ideas are the same trade: a 2-sigma live spike on a news day with no completed close, no volume confirmation, and a target that is a fraction of the move already made. TSLA is [value removed] ([value removed]) on vol_ratio [value removed] — a spike on below-normal volume, the classic signature of a gap that fades. FCX is [value removed] ([value removed]) on a routine in-line operational update with a gold deferral that is a timing shift, not a beat, and its own sector (XLB [value removed]) is down. Both are stock-specific (rel_move_since_pct=[value removed] index/sector moves [value removed]), so there is no regime tailwind to lean on. Both have earnings inside the 10-session time stop (TSLA 2026-10-01, FCX 2026-10-22), so the drift thesis is really an earnings gamble with a [value removed]/[value removed] stop. The bull's 'not priced in' rests on the movers screen being silent, but the fact card shows the move is already [value removed] live; the screen is not evidence of an unfinished reaction, it is evidence of a reaction that has not closed. Entering now is buying the top of a one-day gap with a stop [value removed] and [value removed] away against [value removed] and [value removed] daily ATR — roughly [value removed] ATR of stop, so a normal pullback stops you out before the drift can pay. Zero is the right number here.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":["X:TSLA:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:TSLA:move_today_live_sigma","X:TSLA:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:TSLA:news_age_sessions"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"TSLA is already [value removed] ([value removed]) live on the news day with no completed close; the entry is the chase, not the catalyst."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":["X:TSLA:vol_ratio_last"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"The spike is on below-normal volume (vol_ratio_last=[figure withheld]), so there is no confirmation the move is being accumulated rather than sold into."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":["X:TSLA:earnings_next","X:TSLA:earnings_confirmed"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"TSLA earnings_next is 2026-10-01, inside the 10-session time stop; the 'drift into earnings' is an event bet, not a drift."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":["X:TSLA:atr14_pct","X:TSLA:sigma_daily"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"The 0.06 stop is only ~[figure withheld] the [figure withheld] ATR; a routine pullback stops the trade before any drift pays."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":["X:FCX:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:FCX:move_today_live_sigma","X:FCX:news_age_sessions"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"FCX is [value removed] ([value removed]) live on a routine in-line operational update; the move is already made."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":["P:169f57e4"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"The catalyst is not a beat: copper and gold 'approximated expectations' and the 60koz gold is a timing deferral, not incremental demand."},{"claim_id":"c7","evidence":["F:XLB:ret1d_sigma","X:FCX:rel_move_since_pct"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"FCX's own sector is a headwind: XLB [figure withheld] ([figure withheld]) while FCX is [figure withheld], so the move is idiosyncratic and unsupported."},{"claim_id":"c8","evidence":["X:FCX:earnings_next","X:FCX:atr14_pct","X:FCX:earnings_confirmed"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"FCX earnings_next 2026-10-22 sits inside the 10-session time stop, and the 0.05 stop is ~[figure withheld] the [figure withheld] ATR."}],"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":["P:d8c415ce","N:77f2f408","N:4b1d2053"],"text":"The 8-K and broker items do confirm deliveries topped expectations; the catalyst is real and dated.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":["X:TSLA:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:TSLA:move_today_live_sigma"],"text":"Absence from the movers screen is not evidence the reaction is unfinished; the fact card shows a 2.12-sigma live move already.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":["X:TSLA:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:TSLA:news_age_sessions"],"text":"The drift thesis needs a completed close holding the gain; move_since_news_close_sigma=[figure withheld]means no such close exists yet.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":["X:TSLA:short_interest_pct_float","X:TSLA:days_to_cover","X:TSLA:dist_52w_high_pct"],"text":"Crowding is genuinely low: [figure withheld] short interest, [figure withheld], [figure withheld] below the 52-week high.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":["X:TSLA:vol_ratio_last","X:TSLA:move_since_news_live_sigma"],"text":"Low crowding does not pay a [value removed] target when the entry is [value removed] into a gap on [value removed] volume.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":["P:169f57e4","M:FCX:laggard"],"text":"FCX's operational update is real and the screen shows a sub-half-sigma laggard print.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c7","evidence":["X:FCX:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:FCX:move_today_live_sigma"],"text":"The screen laggard print is stale: the live move is [value removed] ([value removed]), so the tape has already paid for the update.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c8","evidence":["P:169f57e4","F:XLB:ret1d_sigma","X:FCX:rel_move_since_pct"],"text":"In-line production with a timing deferral is not a positive catalyst; XLB is down and FCX's move is idiosyncratic.","verdict":"refute"}]},"bull":null,"refs":["idea:1","idea:2","idea:3","idea:4"],"replicates":[],"tally":[]}],"budget":null,"declared_cost_pct_per_leg":1.25,"flags":["swing_text_withheld:2","skeptic_same_model"],"ideas":[{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Q3 2026 production/deliveries 8-K filed; deliveries topped Wall Street expectations","catalysts":[{"id":"P:d8c415ce","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=TSLA&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits"},{"id":"N:77f2f408","kind":"licensed_news","source":"cnbc_top"},{"id":"N:4b1d2053","kind":"licensed_news","source":"marketwatch_top"}],"drop_code":"pm_pass","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"flat","trend":"mixed","vs_sector":"in_line"},"facts":{"crowding":"low","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":50.0,"earnings_next":"2026-10-01","filing_age_d":0.07,"fundamentals_age_d":71.0,"gm_chg":-0.41,"news_age_sessions":0.0,"om_chg":-2.69,"rev_accel":9.73,"rev_yoy":25.52,"sector_etf":"XLY"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:1","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"pm","stop_pct":6.0,"target_pct":13.0,"thesis":"Tesla's Q3 delivery release is a hard, dated catalyst: the 8-K furnishes the production and deliveries press release, and coverage says deliveries topped expectations. The stock is not on the movers screen at all, so the screen gives no evidence the reaction is finished. Delivery prints are the start of a drift into the 3Q earnings date, not a one-day event.","ticker":"TSLA","time_stop_days":10,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":true,"claim_supports_side":true,"crowding":"low","discounted":"partly","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["P:d8c415ce","N:77f2f408","N:4b1d2053"],"text":"8-K Item 2.02 with EX-99.1 Q3 2026 production/deliveries release matches the claim; broker items confirm deliveries topped expectations."},{"evidence":["X:TSLA:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:TSLA:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:TSLA:news_age_sessions"],"text":"Live move is already [value removed] today with no completed close since the news (move_since_news_close_sigma=[value removed]), so the reaction is unconfirmed and near the chase…"},{"evidence":["X:TSLA:vol_ratio_last"],"text":"Volume does not confirm the spike: vol_ratio_last=[figure withheld], below a normal session."},{"evidence":["X:TSLA:spx_move_since_pct","X:TSLA:ndx_move_since_pct","X:TSLA:sector_move_since_pct","X:TSLA:rel_move_since_pct"],"text":"Move is stock-specific, not beta: spx/ndx/sector moves since news are 0 and rel_move_since_pct=[figure withheld]."},{"evidence":["X:TSLA:dist_52w_high_pct","X:TSLA:short_interest_pct_float","X:TSLA:days_to_cover"],"text":"Crowding low: [figure withheld] below the 52-week high, short interest [figure withheld] of float, days_to_cover [figure withheld]."}],"ref":"idea:1","regime":"neutral","same_family":false,"verdict":"wait","what_would_change_my_mind":"A completed close in the trade's direction by about [value removed]-[value removed] on confirming volume, without a further chase."},"votes":{"enter":0,"failed":0,"replicates":3}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (pm_pass)"},{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Q3 2026 operational update: copper and gold production approximated expectations; 60koz gold deferred to Q4","catalysts":[{"id":"P:169f57e4","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=FCX&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits"},{"id":"M:FCX:laggard","kind":"screen"}],"drop_code":"pm_pass","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"flat","trend":"mixed","vs_sector":"in_line"},"facts":{"crowding":"low","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":49.0,"earnings_next":"2026-10-22","filing_age_d":0.09,"fundamentals_age_d":57.0,"gm_chg":-3.61,"news_age_sessions":0.0,"om_chg":-3.58,"rev_accel":-16.13,"rev_yoy":-7.29},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:2","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"pm","stop_pct":5.0,"target_pct":11.5,"thesis":"Freeport's 8-K carries a third-quarter operational update with copper and gold production in line with expectations and a timing deferral of gold sales into Q4. The movers screen lists FCX as a laggard at [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] volume, i.e. essentially no move on the news. In-line production with a sales-timing deferral is a mild positive that the tape has not paid for.","ticker":"FCX","time_stop_days":10,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":true,"claim_supports_side":true,"crowding":"low","discounted":"partly","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["P:169f57e4"],"text":"Catalyst is a routine operational update: copper and gold production 'approximated expectations', no beat or raise; the 60koz gold deferral is a timing shift, not a positive."},{"evidence":["X:FCX:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:FCX:move_today_live_sigma","X:FCX:news_age_sessions"],"text":"Live move is already [value removed] ([value removed]) on the news day, with no completed close yet; entering now is chasing the reaction."},{"evidence":["F:XLB:ret1d_sigma","X:FCX:rel_move_since_pct"],"text":"Move is stock-specific, not sector beta: XLB materials ETF was [figure withheld] ([figure withheld]) while FCX is up [figure withheld]."},{"evidence":["X:FCX:short_interest_pct_float","X:FCX:dist_52w_high_pct","X:FCX:vol_ratio_last"],"text":"Crowding is low: [figure withheld] short interest, [figure withheld] from 52w high, [figure withheld] off low, vol_ratio [figure withheld](no climax)."}],"ref":"idea:2","regime":"neutral","same_family":false,"verdict":"wait","what_would_change_my_mind":"A completed close holding the gain ([value removed]-[value removed]) on a hard catalyst like a guidance raise or beat."},"votes":{"enter":0,"failed":0,"replicates":3}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (pm_pass)"},{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Movers screen: MAT moved [figure withheld] ([figure withheld]) on [figure withheld] volume","catalysts":[{"id":"M:MAT:movers","kind":"screen"},{"id":"M:MAT:volume","kind":"screen"}],"drop_code":"no_catalyst_id","facts":{},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:3","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"dropped_by_code","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":16.0,"thesis":"Mattel shows the largest screened up-move outside the CTVA dislocation: [figure withheld] on nearly nine times normal volume, a genuine repricing event. The screen gives the move but no catalyst text, so the honest read is that a large-volume repricing of this size usually continues over days rather than fully reversing in one bar. Sized small given the wide daily range implied by a 10-sigma day.","ticker":"MAT","time_stop_days":8},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"no_catalyst_id","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"no_catalyst_id","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (no_catalyst_id)"},{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"carried_from":["2026-10-01T1840Z"],"catalyst_claim":"[withheld: carried from an earlier cycle; its feed text cannot be shown]","catalysts":[{"id":"P:09433681","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=PLMK&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits"}],"drop_code":"day2_unconfirmed","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"against","trend":"up","volume":"climax","vs_sector":"lagging"},"facts":{"crowding":"unknown","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":33.0,"earnings_next":"2026-11-13","filing_age_d":1.06,"fundamentals_age_d":49.0,"news_age_sessions":1.0,"sector_etf":"XLU"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","gap_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:4","setup":"unknown","side":"long","stage_reached":"dropped_by_code","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":20.0,"text_withheld":true,"thesis":"[withheld: carried from an earlier cycle; its feed text cannot be shown]","ticker":"PLMK","time_stop_days":10},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"day2_unconfirmed","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"day2_unconfirmed","note":"","stage":"unknown"},"why":"outcome not recorded (day2_unconfirmed)"}],"inputs":{"carried":[],"context":[],"open_trades":[],"reading":[],"screen":[]},"real_budget_flags":[],"scout_passed":[],"skeptic_model_family":"deepseek","trace_all":false}}