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yields rose 55 bps and 10-year 51 bps over 20 days, a rate shock that pressures long-duration equity multiples.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"risk_down","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":55.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":51.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DFF","unit":"bps","value":25.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null}],"falsifier":"DGS10 and DGS2 give back most of the 20-day rise.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["NDX","SPX"]},{"card_id":"K:news:2","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Q2 GDP third estimate 2.2% and August personal income +0.2% show steady but slowing growth, no macro break for equities.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"P:ee184eed","kind":"public_news","source":"bea"},{"id":"P:bb27e5fb","kind":"public_news","source":"bea"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null}],"falsifier":"A later revision or release shows a sharp growth contraction.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["NDX","SPX","SEMIS"]},{"card_id":"K:news:3","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Fed speeches by Waller, Cook, Barr and Bowman are scheduled but contain no policy signal in the pack text.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"P:fae633d5","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:983b54b2","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:6f8c93f2","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"},{"id":"P:50232f34","kind":"public_news","source":"fed_board"}],"falsifier":"A speech transcript shows an explicit rate-path change.","horizon_days":5,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["EURUSD","GBPUSD"]},{"card_id":"K:news:4","card_type":"news_context","claim":"Crypto headlines are only price-prediction posts for tokens not on the book; no regulatory or flow news for BTC or ETH.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"id":"N:824011f6","kind":"broker_feed"},{"id":"N:489eaa2b","kind":"broker_feed"},{"id":"N:e462cbe4","kind":"broker_feed"},{"id":"N:39f742fd","kind":"broker_feed"}],"falsifier":"A regulatory or exchange action on BTC or ETH appears.","horizon_days":5,"qualifying":false,"role":"news","scope":["BTC","ETH"]},{"card_id":"K:macro:1","card_type":"macro_context","claim":"Broad dollar strength (+1.67% in 20d) plus a 55bp 2y repricing keeps both FX pairs pinned below their averages; overlay adds lack macro support.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"risk_down","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-25","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DTWEXBGS","unit":"pct","value":1.666},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":55.0},{"id":"F:EURUSD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GBPUSD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"Dollar index gives back more than half the 20-day gain or EURUSD closes above its 50d average.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"macro","scope":["EURUSD","GBPUSD"]},{"card_id":"K:macro:2","card_type":"macro_context","claim":"A 50bp+ rise in 2y and 10y yields with VIX at 16.3 is a headwind not yet visible in price; equity uptrends hold but the margin for adds is thin.","corroborated_by":[],"direction":"neutral","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":51.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":55.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"}],"falsifier":"SPX closes more than 2% below its 50-day average or VIX closes above 22.","horizon_days":20,"qualifying":false,"role":"macro","scope":["NDX","SPX","SEMIS"]}],"cycle_id":"2026-10-01T1440Z","debate":{"bear":{"argument":"The bull's own numbers undercut the hold-everything case. SEMIS carries mom63d -5.12% and dd52 -13.13% — the only equity line with a negative quarter and a double-digit drawdown — while its sigma_ann is 39.65%, the highest of the three, and its band is pinned at [+1.00,+1.00] with 'may: add' only. I cannot cut it: no code volatility card exists (shock 0.50x, vol_ratio 1.00x) and K:news:1's scope is NDX,SPX, not SEMIS. So I concede the reference there and everywhere the band pins me. GOLD is the one line where the trend is genuinely down and the band allows a cut to 0.00: -3.84% under SMA50, -8.52% under SMA200, dd52 -23.20%, mom10d -2.78%, and vol shock 1.10x — the only line above 1.0x. That is a real, code-visible deterioration, and cutting to flat is a move toward less risk, not a short. I propose no shorts: no line's band offers one.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD is the only line in a downtrend with a band allowing a cut, and its vol shock 1.10x is the only reading above 1.0x in the pack."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:GOLD:dist_sma200","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD dd52 -23.20% and mom10d -2.78% show the drawdown is still deepening, not basing; the +0.25 reference is a residual long, not a position."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS has the worst profile of the equity lines: mom63d -5.12%, dd52 -13.13%, sigma_ann 39.65%, yet no qualifying card exists to cut it."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS10","unit":"bps","value":51.0},{"as_of":"2026-09-29","kind":"fred","measure":"chg20","publishable":true,"series":"DGS2","unit":"bps","value":55.0}],"text":"The 51-55bp 20-day yield repricing is a live headwind to long-duration multiples; K:macro:2 itself calls the margin for adds thin."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"}],"text":"SPX sits only +0.19% over SMA50 — the thinnest cushion of the three equity lines — so its uptrend is the most fragile to a further rate move."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto lines are reference-only at 110bp/side; BTC dd52 -32.92% and ETH dd52 -42.66% are the deepest drawdowns in the book and cannot be trimmed."}],"concessions":["NDX is a clean uptrend: +3.56% over SMA50, +11.10% over SMA200, dd52 -1.03%, vol 0.91x — I do not argue for a cut there.","SEMIS mom10d +13.26% and shock 0.50x are genuinely strong; the negative mom63d is a stale window, as the bull says.","No line's band permits a short this cycle, so I propose none.","The rate shock is not being priced as a break: VIX 16.34 and equity dd52 of -1.03% to -1.72% support holding, not cutting."],"proposal_levels":{"GOLD":0.0},"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX trend, distance and drawdown numbers support the reference; I do not contest this line.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX vol_ratio 0.91x and shock 0.58x are below normal; no vol card exists to cut it.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"}],"text":"SPX is only +0.19% over SMA50, not a comfortable cushion; the uptrend is intact but the thinnest of the three.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"mom63d -5.12% and dd52 -13.13% are not stale — they are the current 63-day and 52-week windows, and sigma_ann 39.65% is the book's highest equity vol.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"VIX 16.34 and shallow equity drawdowns are inconsistent with a de-risking event; the rate shock argues for holding, not cutting.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"The cost gate does block adds on 15bp lines; I make no add case either.","verdict":"concede"}],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"}},"bull":{"argument":"Three core equity lines are in uptrends with the reference already at +1.00 and bands pinned at [+1.00,+1.00]: NDX +3.6% over SMA50, +11.1% over SMA200, mom10d +5.1%, dd52 only -1.0%, vol 0.91x median and shock 0.58x; SPX +6.5% over SMA200 with vol 0.83x median; SEMIS +7.6%/+25.8% with mom10d +13.3% and shock 0.50x. Nothing in the pack justifies cutting any of them, and the cost gate plus the 0.25 deadband make adds on 15bp lines unattractive against a 0.2-sigma hurdle. The strongest bearish fact is the 51-55bp 20-day yield repricing (K:news:1), but VIX at 16.3 and dd52 of -1.0% to -1.7% show it is not being priced as a break; it argues for holding, not cutting. GOLD is the one line where the trend is genuinely down: I concede the reference +0.25 is the honest level, not a long.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"NDX is in an uptrend, +3.56% over SMA50 and +11.10% over SMA200, with mom10d +5.08% and dd52 just -1.03%; the reference +1.00 is the right level."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"V:NDX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"NDX volatility is below normal: vol_ratio 0.91x of the 1y median and vol shock 0.58x, so there is no vol reason to trim a full unit."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SPX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SPX holds +6.50% over SMA200 with vol_ratio 0.83x and shock 0.67x; the uptrend is intact even though price is only +0.19% over SMA50."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom10d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SEMIS is +7.63% over SMA50 and +25.84% over SMA200 with mom10d +13.26% and shock 0.50x; the negative mom63d -5.12% is a stale window, not a current break."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"}],"text":"The rate shock is real but not priced as a break: VIX 16.34 and equity dd52 of -1.03% to -1.72% are inconsistent with a de-risking event, so it argues for holding the reference."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:NDX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SPX:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:SEMIS:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:NDX:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"V:NDX:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"}],"text":"Adds on the 15bp equity lines must clear a 0.2-sigma round-trip gate; with no carry and vol at or below median, no add is worth twice its cost, so the reference stands."}],"concessions":["GOLD is in a downtrend, -3.84% under SMA50 and -8.52% under SMA200 with dd52 -23.20%; I do not argue for a long there.","SEMIS mom63d is -5.12% and dd52 -13.13%, the weakest momentum profile of the three equity lines.","The 51-55bp 20-day yield rise is a genuine headwind to long-duration multiples and caps the case for adding risk.","Crypto lines are reference-only and cost 110bp/side, so I propose nothing there."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"}},"rebuttal":{"argument":"The bear and I now agree on almost everything: reference on NDX, SPX, SEMIS and crypto, no shorts, no adds. The one live disagreement is GOLD. The bear's cut to 0.00 is defensible but not required: the band is [+0.00,+0.25], so +0.25 is inside it, and the reference already sets that level. GOLD mom63d is +2.76% — positive — and vol_ratio 0.97x is normal; the 1.10x shock is a single reading, not a card. A cut pays 30bp round-trip to move toward flat on a line whose 63-day momentum is up. I keep the reference. On SEMIS I accept the bear's correction: mom63d -5.12% and dd52 -13.13% are current windows, not stale, and sigma_ann 39.65% is the book's highest equity vol — but with no qualifying card and the band pinned, the reference stands.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":[{"id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:GOLD:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:GOLD:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"GOLD mom63d is +2.76%, positive, and vol_ratio 0.97x is normal; the 1.10x shock is one reading, not a qualifying card, so the +0.25 reference is inside the band and stands."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":[{"id":"C:GOLD:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"C:GOLD:carry_bps_day","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:GOLD:mom63d","kind":"market"}],"text":"A GOLD cut to 0.00 pays 30bp round-trip (15bp/side) to reduce a line whose 63-day momentum is positive; the cost gate and deadband make that a paid move, not a free one."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":[{"id":"F:SEMIS:mom63d","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SEMIS:sigma_ann","kind":"vol"},{"id":"F:SEMIS:trend","kind":"market"}],"text":"I accept the bear's SEMIS correction: mom63d -5.12% and dd52 -13.13% are current windows and sigma_ann 39.65% is the highest equity vol, but no card qualifies a cut and the band is pinned at [+1.00,+1.00]."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":[{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma50","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dist_sma200","kind":"market"},{"id":"V:SPX:vol_ratio","kind":"vol"},{"id":"V:SPX:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}],"text":"SPX +0.19% over SMA50 is thin, as the bear says, but +6.50% over SMA200 with vol_ratio 0.83x and shock 0.67x keeps the uptrend intact; thin cushion is not a cut trigger."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":[{"id":"K:news:1","kind":"card"},{"as_of":"2026-09-30","kind":"fred","measure":null,"publishable":false,"series":"VIXCLS","unit":null,"value":null},{"id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:SPX:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"K:macro:2","kind":"card"}],"text":"The rate shock is a headwind, not a break: VIX 16.34 and equity dd52 of -1.03% to -1.72% are inconsistent with de-risking, so it caps adds rather than forcing cuts."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":[{"id":"C:BTC:per_side_bps","kind":"cost"},{"id":"F:BTC:dd52","kind":"market"},{"id":"F:ETH:dd52","kind":"market"}],"text":"Crypto is reference-only at 110bp/side; BTC dd52 -32.92% and ETH dd52 -42.66% cannot be trimmed, and no line's band permits a short this cycle."}],"concessions":["c3: SEMIS mom63d -5.12% and dd52 -13.13% are current windows, not stale, and sigma_ann 39.65% is the highest equity vol.","c5: SPX +0.19% over SMA50 is the thinnest cushion of the three equity lines.","c4: the 51-55bp 20-day yield repricing is a live headwind and K:macro:2 calls the margin for adds thin.","c6: crypto drawdowns are the deepest in the book and cannot be trimmed at 110bp/side."],"proposal_levels":{},"rebuttals":[],"strongest_opposing":{"id":"V:GOLD:ewma5_60","kind":"vol"}}},"decision":{"approved_slot":null,"human_outcome":"no_action","reason":"","state":"reviewed_no_action"},"facts":[{"as_of":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:data_age_h","kind":"market","label":"age of the data","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"hours","value":14.7},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dd52","kind":"market","label":"drop from 1-year high","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":-1.03},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma200","kind":"market","label":"vs 200-day average","line":"NDX","source":"tiingo","unit":"pct","value":11.1},{"as_of":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","id":"F:NDX:dist_sma50","kind":"market","label":"vs 50-day 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Nothing material changed, so the reference stands.","replicate":0,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"All equity lines are in uptrends with bands pinned at ref +1.00 and no qualifying cards; NDX vol 0.91x, SPX 0.83x, SEMIS 1.00x of 1y median."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"No qualifying cards exist; every band pins the reference (equities at +1.00, GOLD [0,0.25], overlays 0). Nothing material changed, so the reference stands.","replicate":1,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]},{"decisive_fact":{"evidence":{"id":"F:NDX:trend","kind":"market"},"text":"All equity lines are in uptrends with bands pinned at ref +1.00; no qualifying card exists to justify a cut, and no line clears the cost gate for an add."},"deviations":[],"dismissed":[],"levels":{"BTC":1.0,"ETH":1.0,"EURUSD":0.0,"GBPUSD":0.0,"GOLD":0.25,"NDX":1.0,"OIL":0.0,"SEMIS":1.0,"SPX":1.0},"no_change_reason":"Every line's band and reference already express the trend; no card, no cost-gate-clearing deviation, and no material change justifies a move.","replicate":2,"reverted":[],"sided_with":"reference","valid":true,"violations":[]}],"valid_replicates":3},"slot":"2026-10-01T14:40:00Z","split":{"budget_fallback":false,"core_pct":100.0,"swing_budget_pct":20.0,"swing_pct":0.0},"status":"on_time","think":false,"why_we_met":[]},"cycle_id":"2026-10-01T1440Z","decision_no":1,"flags":[],"paper":true,"schema_id":"council-book/paper-cycle/v1","slot":"2026-10-01T14:40:00Z","swing":{"batches":[{"bear":{"argument":"The bull's best idea, NVCR, is the weakest on the numbers. The approval is real, but the tape has already answered: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume is a non-reaction, and a 12-session time stop with an [value removed] stop against a [value removed] ATR means one ordinary down day ends the trade. Crowding is elevated, and earnings land 2026-10-29 — inside the 12-session window — so the position carries an unhedged binary. MU: the bull calls [value removed] a mild fade, but it is a fade on the day the beat was public, with beta_60d [value removed] and sigma_daily [value removed]; a [value removed] stop is under two daily sigmas, and the 10-session stop sits before the 2026-12-17 print. The [value removed] one-year run and [value removed] off the low mean the beat was anticipated, not new. SINT and JBL the bull concedes; I agree and would not enter either. Nothing here clears the bar: zero new trades is the honest answer.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":["X:NVCR:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:NVCR:vol_ratio_last","P:4411e8ca"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"NVCR's non-reaction is the tell: [value removed] on [value removed] volume on approval day means the market read the news and did not buy it."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":["X:NVCR:earnings_next","X:NVCR:beta_60d"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"Earnings 2026-10-29 falls inside the 12-session time stop, adding an unhedged event to a [figure withheld]-beta name."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":["X:NVCR:crowding","X:NVCR:dist_52w_high_pct","X:NVCR:ret_20d"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"Crowding is elevated and the stock is [figure withheld] below its high with ret_20d [figure withheld]: a weak tape, not a base."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":["X:MU:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:MU:beta_60d","X:MU:sigma_daily"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"MU faded [value removed] on the day the beat was public, with beta_60d [value removed] and sigma_daily [value removed]; a [value removed] stop is under two daily sigmas."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":["X:MU:dist_52w_low_pct","X:MU:ret_20d","N:00a84ad8"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"MU is up [figure withheld] off its 52-week low and ret_20d [figure withheld]; the beat was anticipated, so drift is not a fresh catalyst."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":["X:MU:earnings_next","X:MU:news_age_sessions"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"The 10-session time stop ends before the 2026-12-17 print, so the position is a pure drift bet with no catalyst inside the window."},{"claim_id":"c7","evidence":["X:SINT:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:SINT:vol_ratio_last","X:SINT:ret_20d"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"SINT: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume on the beat day after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions; the news was in the price."},{"claim_id":"c8","evidence":["X:JBL:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:JBL:vol_ratio_last","X:JBL:trend","N:b69b744c"],"ref":"idea:5","text":"JBL: [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] volume, trend down, ret_5d [figure withheld]; the cited item is a preview, not results."}],"rebuttals":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":["X:NVCR:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:NVCR:news_age_sessions"],"text":"The completed-bar move is indeed [figure withheld] and the news is 0 sessions old.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":["X:NVCR:rel_move_since_pct","X:NVCR:spx_move_since_pct"],"text":"Relative move is 0 with SPX and sector flat, so any move would be stock-specific.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":["X:NVCR:short_interest_pct_float","X:NVCR:days_to_cover","X:NVCR:crowding"],"text":"[figure withheld] short is real, but [figure withheld] with elevated crowding means the squeeze is already a crowded bet, not fuel.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":["X:NVCR:ret_20d","X:NVCR:ret_60d","X:NVCR:trend"],"text":"A washed-out base cuts both ways: ret_20d [figure withheld] and ret_60d [figure withheld] is a downtrend, and the approval did not reverse it.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":["X:MU:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:MU:news_age_sessions"],"text":"MU's completed-bar move is [figure withheld] and the news is 1 session old.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":["X:MU:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:MU:beta_60d","X:MU:sigma_daily"],"text":"[value removed] is mild, but it is a fade on the beat day with beta [value removed]; a [value removed] stop is under two daily sigmas.","verdict":"refute"},{"claim_id":"c7","evidence":["X:MU:trend","X:MU:ret_20d","X:MU:dist_52w_high_pct"],"text":"Trend is up and ret_20d [figure withheld]; the name is [figure withheld] below its high.","verdict":"concede"},{"claim_id":"c8","evidence":["X:SINT:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:SINT:short_interest_pct_float"],"text":"SINT's rejection on the beat day with no squeeze fuel is exactly right.","verdict":"concede"}]},"bull":{"argument":"The strongest honest case is idea:3 NVCR, then idea:1 MU. NVCR: the Japan MHLW approval is a genuinely new fact (filing_age_d [value removed], news_age_sessions [value removed]) and the tape has not absorbed it — move_since_news_close_sigma [value removed] live move only [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume, with rel_move_since_pct [value removed] against flat SPX/sector. Short interest is [value removed] of float with [value removed] days to cover, so a squeeze tailwind sits behind a long, and the stock is [value removed] below its 52-week high with ret_20d [value removed], i.e. the approval lands on a washed-out base rather than after a run. MU: the beat and strong guidance are hours old (news_age_sessions [value removed]), the completed-bar move is exactly [value removed] (move_since_news_close_sigma [value removed]), and the live drift is [value removed] ([value removed]) — a mild fade, not a rejection, on [value removed] volume, with trend up and ret_20d [value removed]. I concede idea:2 SINT: the Skeptic is right — [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume on the day of the beat, after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions, is a stock-specific rejection with no squeeze fuel ([value removed] of float). I concede idea:5 JBL: the cited item is a preview, not results, and [value removed] on [value removed] volume with trend down is a fully expressed move against a long.","claims":[{"claim_id":"c1","evidence":["X:NVCR:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:NVCR:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:NVCR:news_age_sessions","X:NVCR:vol_ratio_last","P:4411e8ca"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"The Japan approval is hours old and unpriced: completed-bar move [value removed], live move only [value removed] on [value removed] volume."},{"claim_id":"c2","evidence":["X:NVCR:rel_move_since_pct","X:NVCR:spx_move_since_pct","X:NVCR:sector_move_since_pct"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"The move would be stock-specific: relative move 0 with SPX and sector flat over the window."},{"claim_id":"c3","evidence":["X:NVCR:short_interest_pct_float","X:NVCR:days_to_cover"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"[figure withheld] of float short with [figure withheld] gives a squeeze tailwind behind a long."},{"claim_id":"c4","evidence":["X:NVCR:dist_52w_high_pct","X:NVCR:ret_20d","X:NVCR:ret_60d"],"ref":"idea:3","text":"The approval lands on a washed-out base: [figure withheld] below the 52-week high, ret_20d [figure withheld], ret_60d [figure withheld]."},{"claim_id":"c5","evidence":["X:MU:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:MU:news_age_sessions","N:00a84ad8"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"MU's completed-bar reaction to the beat is exactly zero, so the repricing has not shown up in bars yet."},{"claim_id":"c6","evidence":["X:MU:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:MU:vol_ratio_last","X:MU:atr14_pct"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"The live fade is mild, not a rejection: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume, well inside a [value removed] ATR."},{"claim_id":"c7","evidence":["X:MU:trend","X:MU:ret_20d","X:MU:ret_60d","X:MU:dist_52w_high_pct"],"ref":"idea:1","text":"Trend is up with ret_20d [figure withheld] and ret_60d [figure withheld], and the name is [figure withheld] below its 52-week high."},{"claim_id":"c8","evidence":["X:SINT:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:SINT:vol_ratio_last","X:SINT:ret_20d","X:SINT:short_interest_pct_float"],"ref":"idea:2","text":"Conceded: SINT fell [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume on the beat day after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions, with only [value removed] of float short."}],"rebuttals":[]},"refs":["idea:1","idea:2","idea:3","idea:5"],"replicates":[{"actions":[{"action":"enter","reason":"Beat plus strong guidance is hours old, completed-bar move is exactly [value removed] and the live fade is only [value removed] on [value removed] volume with trend up. …","ref":"idea:1","stop_pct":6.0,"target_pct":14.0,"time_stop_days":10},{"action":"pass","reason":"The beat was rejected on the day: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions, with no squeeze fuel. …","ref":"idea:2","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null},{"action":"enter","reason":"New-country approval is hours old and unpriced: [value removed] completed-bar move, [value removed] live, [value removed] of float short with [value removed] days to cover, and…","ref":"idea:3","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"time_stop_days":12},{"action":"pass","reason":"The cited item is a preview, not results, and the tape is [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] volume with trend down. No long edge against a fully expressed move.","ref":"idea:5","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null}],"budget_pct":20.0,"budget_reason":"Two entries with real, hours-old catalysts; the rest of the ideas are rejected or fully expressed, so keep most of the book in the core.","budget_vote_valid":true,"replicate":0,"valid":true},{"actions":[{"action":"pass","reason":"Beat is real but the tape faded [value removed] on the day it was public; with beta [value removed] and sigma [value removed] a [value removed] stop is under two daily sigmas…","ref":"idea:1","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null},{"action":"pass","reason":"The beat was rejected: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions, with only [value removed] of float short. …","ref":"idea:2","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null},{"action":"enter","reason":"New-country approval, hours old, completed-bar move [value removed] and live only [value removed] on [value removed] volume, so nothing is priced in. …","ref":"idea:3","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"time_stop_days":10},{"action":"pass","reason":"The cited item is a pre-market preview, not results, so the claim is unsupported. [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] volume with trend down is a fully expressed move against…","ref":"idea:5","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null}],"budget_pct":10.0,"budget_reason":"One unpriced approval idea worth a single slot; the rest of the tape is soft and the other three ideas fail. Keep the rest in the core.","budget_vote_valid":true,"replicate":1,"valid":true},{"actions":[{"action":"enter","reason":"Beat plus strong guidance is hours old, completed-bar move is exactly zero, and the live fade is only [value removed] on [value removed] volume with trend up. …","ref":"idea:1","stop_pct":6.0,"target_pct":14.0,"time_stop_days":10},{"action":"pass","reason":"The beat was rejected: [value removed] ([value removed]) on [value removed] volume after [value removed] in [value removed] sessions, with only [value removed] of float short. …","ref":"idea:2","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null},{"action":"enter","reason":"New-country approval is hours old and unpriced: completed-bar move [value removed], live move only [value removed]. …","ref":"idea:3","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"time_stop_days":12},{"action":"pass","reason":"The cited item is a preview, not results, and the move is [figure withheld] on [figure withheld] volume with trend down. A long here is fighting a fully expressed repricing.","ref":"idea:5","stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_days":null}],"budget_pct":20.0,"budget_reason":"Two unpriced catalysts (MU, NVCR) clear the bar; SINT and JBL are rejected, so keep the rest in the core.","budget_vote_valid":true,"replicate":2,"valid":true}],"tally":[{"action":"enter","ref":"idea:1","replicates":3,"votes_for":2},{"action":"pass","ref":"idea:2","replicates":3,"votes_for":3},{"action":"enter","ref":"idea:3","replicates":3,"votes_for":3},{"action":"pass","ref":"idea:5","replicates":3,"votes_for":3}]}],"budget":{"core_pct":80.0,"fallback":false,"median_pct":20.0,"open_pct":0.0,"swing_pct":20.0,"votes":3},"declared_cost_pct_per_leg":1.25,"flags":["skeptic_same_model"],"ideas":[{"batch":0,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Micron beat on earnings and issued strong guidance; data center revenue jumped 11-fold","catalysts":[{"id":"N:00a84ad8","kind":"licensed_news","source":"cnbc_top"},{"id":"N:e234a67e","kind":"licensed_news","source":"cnbc_earnings"},{"id":"N:8dcbf665","kind":"licensed_news","source":"nasdaq_earnings"}],"drop_code":"skeptic_failed","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"near_high","reaction":"flat","trend":"up","volume":"normal","vs_sector":"in_line"},"facts":{"crowding":"low","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":0.0,"earnings_next":"2026-12-17","fundamentals_age_d":98.0,"gm_chg":46.85,"news_age_sessions":1.0,"om_chg":57.05,"rev_accel":149.43,"rev_yoy":345.72,"sector_etf":"XLK"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:1","setup":"post_earnings_drift","side":"long","stage_reached":"skeptic","stop_pct":6.0,"target_pct":14.0,"thesis":"Micron reported after the close with a beat and strong guidance, and the follow-up coverage says fiscal 2027 demand still exceeds supply. The stock is not on the movers screen at all, so the post-earnings repricing has not shown up in completed bars yet. Memory pricing strength is a multi-quarter story, which suits a days-to-weeks hold.","ticker":"MU","time_stop_days":10,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":null,"claim_supports_side":null,"crowding":"unknown","discounted":"unknown","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"unknown","reasons":[],"ref":"idea:1","regime":"unknown","same_family":false,"verdict":"failed","what_would_change_my_mind":""}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"skeptic_failed","note":"","stage":"skeptic"},"same":false,"traced_leg":{"code":"post_earnings_wait","ok":false,"rule":"S9","size_nav_pct":null,"stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_date":null,"time_stop_days":null},"traced_outcome":{"code":"post_earnings_wait","note":"enter votes 2 of 3","stage":"rules"},"why":"Skeptic failed"},{"batch":0,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Preliminary Q3 revenue exceeded the high end of guidance, up about [figure withheld] from Q2; Q4 guidance reiterated","catalysts":[{"id":"P:5da24595","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=SINT&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits"}],"drop_code":"skeptic_reject","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"flat","trend":"mixed","vs_sector":"in_line"},"facts":{"crowding":"low","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":0.0,"earnings_next":"2026-12-31","filing_age_d":0.07,"fundamentals_age_d":51.0,"gm_chg":23.76,"news_age_sessions":0.0,"om_chg":1125.96,"rev_accel":196.36,"rev_yoy":199.34,"sector_etf":"XLV"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:2","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"skeptic","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"thesis":"An 8-K item 2.02 with preliminary Q3 revenue above the high end of guidance and roughly [figure withheld] sequential growth, plus a reiterated Q4 guide and a warrant call that signals confidence. This is a small, unscreened name, so the screen gives no read on how much of the news is in the price. The revenue step-up is a fundamental change, not a one-day headline.","ticker":"SINT","time_stop_days":8,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":true,"claim_supports_side":true,"crowding":"medium","discounted":"mostly","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["P:5da24595"],"text":"The 8-K preliminary Q3 revenue beat and reiterated Q4 guidance match the claim exactly, and a revenue beat supports a long."},{"evidence":["X:SINT:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:SINT:vol_ratio_last","X:SINT:move_today_live_pct"],"text":"Live move is [value removed] ([value removed]) against the long on the day of the beat, with volume [value removed] normal, a stock-specific rejection of the news."},{"evidence":["F:SPY:ret1d_sigma","F:QQQ:ret1d_sigma","F:XLV:ret1d_sigma"],"text":"Index and sector were only mildly negative (SPY [figure withheld], QQQ [figure withheld], XLV [figure withheld]), so the drop is not beta."},{"evidence":["X:SINT:ret_20d","X:SINT:ret_5d"],"text":"Stock had already run [figure withheld] in 20 sessions and [figure withheld] in 5 sessions into the print, so the beat was largely anticipated."},{"evidence":["X:SINT:short_interest_pct_float","X:SINT:days_to_cover"],"text":"Short interest is low ([figure withheld] of float, [figure withheld]), so there is no squeeze fuel to offset the sell-off."}],"ref":"idea:2","regime":"against","same_family":false,"verdict":"reject","what_would_change_my_mind":"A close back above the pre-news level on declining volume, or a new filing with detail the sell-off does not contain."}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"skeptic_reject","note":"","stage":"skeptic"},"same":false,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"enter votes 0 of 3","stage":"pm"},"why":"Skeptic reject: The 8-K preliminary Q3 revenue beat and reiterated Q4 guidance match the claim exactly, and a revenue beat supports a long."},{"batch":0,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Japan's MHLW approved Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer","catalysts":[{"id":"P:4411e8ca","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=NVCR&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits"}],"drop_code":"S8:illiquid","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"flat","trend":"mixed","vs_sector":"in_line"},"facts":{"crowding":"elevated","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":49.0,"earnings_next":"2026-10-29","filing_age_d":0.07,"fundamentals_age_d":70.0,"gm_chg":3.72,"news_age_sessions":0.0,"om_chg":19.13,"rev_accel":3.31,"rev_yoy":15.6,"sector_etf":"XLV"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:3","setup":"news_continuation","side":"long","stage_reached":"risk","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"thesis":"A new-country regulatory approval for a pancreatic cancer indication widens the addressable market for a company whose revenue is driven by indication-by-indication approvals. The 8-K is hours old and the name is not screened, so the market's read is unclear. Approval-driven launches play out over quarters, which fits a multi-week hold.","ticker":"NVCR","time_stop_days":12,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":true,"claim_supports_side":true,"crowding":"medium","discounted":"no","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["P:4411e8ca"],"text":"8-K EX-99.1 states Japan MHLW approved Optune Pax for unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer, matching the claim exactly."},{"evidence":["X:NVCR:news_age_sessions","X:NVCR:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:NVCR:move_since_news_live_sigma"],"text":"News is [value removed] sessions old and the stock has not moved: move_since_news_close_sigma [value removed] live move only [value removed], so nothing is priced in yet."},{"evidence":["X:NVCR:rel_move_since_pct","X:NVCR:spx_move_since_pct","X:NVCR:sector_move_since_pct"],"text":"Index and sector are flat over the window (rel_move_since_pct [figure withheld]), so any move would be stock-specific, not beta."},{"evidence":["X:NVCR:short_interest_pct_float","X:NVCR:days_to_cover","X:NVCR:crowding"],"text":"Short interest [figure withheld] of float with [figure withheld] and crowding elevated; a squeeze tailwind, not a blocker."},{"evidence":["X:NVCR:dist_52w_high_pct","X:NVCR:ret_20d"],"text":"Stock is [figure withheld] below its 52-week high and 20-day return is [figure withheld], so the approval is a genuinely new fact against a weak tape."}],"ref":"idea:3","regime":"neutral","same_family":false,"verdict":"pass","what_would_change_my_mind":"A completed close that runs [value removed] or more in the trade's direction, or a restatement showing the approval was already known."},"votes":{"enter":3,"failed":0,"replicates":3}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"S8:illiquid","note":"the traced PM saw batches of up to 5 ideas; the real PM would have seen only the survivors","stage":"rules"},"same":false,"traced_leg":{"code":"illiquid","ok":false,"rule":"S8","size_nav_pct":null,"stop_pct":null,"target_pct":null,"time_stop_date":null,"time_stop_days":null},"traced_outcome":{"code":"illiquid","note":"enter votes 3 of 3","stage":"rules"},"why":"stopped by the S-rules (S8:illiquid)"},{"batch":null,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Corteva completed the separation of its seed segment into independent publicly traded Vylor Inc.","catalysts":[{"id":"P:d61eb542","kind":"public_news","link":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=CTVA&type=8-K","title":"8-K: Item 8.01 Other Events"},{"id":"M:CTVA:laggard","kind":"screen"}],"drop_code":"setup_paper_only","facts":{},"live_setup":false,"ref":"idea:4","setup":"event_run_up","side":"long","stage_reached":"dropped_by_code","stop_pct":5.0,"target_pct":11.0,"thesis":"The seed separation is now complete, creating two focused companies and a likely index and holder rebalancing flow over the coming sessions. The screen shows CTVA essentially unmoved on light volume, so the structural event has not been traded yet. Spin-off flows build over days, not minutes.","ticker":"CTVA","time_stop_days":10},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"setup_paper_only","note":"","stage":"scout"},"same":true,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"setup_paper_only","note":"no fact card: the trace cannot go further","stage":"scout"},"why":"dropped at the Scout check (setup_paper_only)"},{"batch":0,"chosen":false,"idea":{"catalyst_claim":"Jabil reported pre-market earnings for the quarter ending August 31","catalysts":[{"id":"N:b69b744c","kind":"licensed_news","source":"nasdaq_earnings"},{"id":"M:JBL:movers","kind":"screen"}],"drop_code":"catalyst_misread","fact_buckets":{"range_52w":"mid","reaction":"strongly_against","trend":"down","volume":"climax","vs_sector":"lagging"},"facts":{"crowding":"low","earnings_confirmed":false,"earnings_last_sessions_ago":1.0,"earnings_next":"2026-12-16","fundamentals_age_d":93.0,"gm_chg":0.76,"news_age_sessions":1.0,"om_chg":-0.06,"rev_accel":-11.31,"rev_yoy":11.79,"sector_etf":"XLK"},"facts_withheld":{"adv_bucket":"unknown_source","atr14_pct":"unknown_source","beta_60d":"unknown_source","corr_60d_max":"unknown_source","dist_52w_high_pct":"unknown_source","dist_52w_low_pct":"unknown_source","gap_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_pct":"unknown_source","move_since_news_close_sigma":"unknown_source","move_since_news_live_pct":"broker_data","move_since_news_live_sigma":"broker_data","move_today_live_pct":"broker_data","move_today_live_sigma":"broker_data","ndx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","px_ge_10":"unknown_source","rel_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","ret_20d":"unknown_source","ret_5d":"unknown_source","ret_60d":"unknown_source","sector_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","sigma_daily":"unknown_source","spx_move_since_pct":"unknown_source","trend":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_last":"unknown_source","vol_ratio_since":"unknown_source"},"live_setup":true,"ref":"idea:5","setup":"post_earnings_drift","side":"long","stage_reached":"skeptic","stop_pct":8.0,"target_pct":18.0,"thesis":"Jabil reported before the open and the stock fell [figure withheld] on nearly five times normal volume, a [figure withheld] move. That is a large, high-volume repricing of an earnings print, and the drift after such a move often continues in the direction of the surprise over the following sessions. I take the long side of the overreaction, with a stop wide enough to survive the post-earnings range.","ticker":"JBL","time_stop_days":8,"verdict":{"catalyst_supports_claim":false,"claim_supports_side":true,"code_override":"catalyst_misread","crowding":"low","discounted":"fully","model_family":"deepseek","news_status":"new","reasons":[{"evidence":["N:b69b744c"],"text":"The cited item is a pre-market earnings preview listing consensus expectations, not a report of results; the claim that Jabil 'reported' is not supported by the item."},{"evidence":["X:JBL:move_since_news_close_sigma","X:JBL:move_since_news_live_sigma","X:JBL:gap_pct"],"text":"The stock is down [value removed] on the close since the news and [value removed] live, with a [value removed] gap — a reaction clearly against a long."},{"evidence":["X:JBL:rel_move_since_pct","X:JBL:ndx_move_since_pct","X:JBL:sector_move_since_pct"],"text":"Relative move of [figure withheld] versus NDX [figure withheld] and XLK [figure withheld] shows this is stock-specific, not sector or index beta."},{"evidence":["X:JBL:vol_ratio_last","X:JBL:trend","X:JBL:ret_5d"],"text":"Volume ratio [figure withheld]and trend down with ret_5d [figure withheld] indicate a climax move already fully expressed against the long side."}],"ref":"idea:5","regime":"against","same_family":false,"verdict":"reject","what_would_change_my_mind":"An actual reported result with a beat/raise and a stock-specific move that is not already [value removed]+ sigma against the long."}},"leg":null,"real_outcome":{"code":"catalyst_misread","note":"","stage":"skeptic"},"same":false,"traced_leg":null,"traced_outcome":{"code":"pm_pass","note":"enter votes 0 of 3","stage":"pm"},"why":"Skeptic reject: The cited item is a pre-market earnings preview listing consensus expectations, not a report of results; 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